Bitcoin’s volatility might rise in the days ahead — Why?

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  • This was the largest spike in the move­ment of BTC’s dor­mant sup­ply in more than two years.
  • Whales con­tin­ued to add Bit­coin expo­sure to their portfolios.

Bit­coin [BTC] con­sol­i­dat­ed in the $64k — $67k range over the week, fac­ing a stiff resis­tance at $68k.

At press time, the king coin was exchang­ing hands at $64.14k, 12% low­er than the all-time high (ATH) hit ear­li­er in the month, accord­ing to Coin­Mar­ket­Cap.

What to expect next?

How­ev­er, days ahead could wit­ness a sig­nif­i­cant bout of volatil­i­ty. Accord­ing to AMBCrypto’s analy­sis of Santiment’s data, many pre­vi­ous­ly inac­tive BTCs start­ed mov­ing between address­es on the 23rd of March.

In fact, this was the largest spike in the move­ment of BTC’s dor­mant sup­ply in more than two years.

Bitcoin dormant supply

Source: San­ti­ment

For much of 2023, dor­mant sup­ply across major age bands hit new highs, sig­nal­ing a mar­ket strat­e­gy of cau­tion and HODLing.

But with Bitcoin’s price zoom­ing to new highs in 2024, these long-term hold­ers began chas­ing prof­its, free­ing up more Bit­coins for active trad­ing. Typ­i­cal­ly, fall in dor­mant sup­ply pre­cedes volatil­i­ty and price surges.

Current market structure supports price increase

Notably, most of the long-term hold­ers were in a state of prof­it, AMBCryp­to ana­lyzed using Glassnode’s Net Unre­al­ized Profit/Loss metric.

This mar­ket phase, dubbed as one of belief, has his­tor­i­cal­ly aid­ed fur­ther price increas­es, as shown below. The mar­ket top, gen­er­al­ly asso­ci­at­ed with eupho­ria and greed, was still a long way off.

Bitcoin's long-term holders

Source: Glassnode

Whales continue to stockpile

Mean­while, whales were mak­ing full use of the sup­pressed mar­ket to add more Bit­coin expo­sure to their portfolios.

The num­ber of unique enti­ties hold­ing at least 1k coins jumped to 1,616 on the 23rd of March, the high­est since Feb­ru­ary 2021.


Read Bitcoin’s [BTC] Price Pre­dic­tion 2024–25


Inter­est­ing­ly, the accu­mu­la­tion didn’t slow down despite Bitcoin’s sharp cor­rec­tion from its peak, sug­gest­ing a belief in the crypto’s long-term price appreciation.

Bitcoin whales

Source: Glassnode

Whales exhib­it­ed their opti­mism in the deriv­a­tives mar­kets as well. At press time, near­ly 58% of all whale posi­tions on Binance were long on Bit­coin, as per Hyblock Capital.

Bitcoin whales long positions

Source: Hyblock Capital

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