This Is What to Expect

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With the Bit­coin halv­ing on the hori­zon, cryp­tocur­ren­cy investors eye poten­tial mar­ket move­ments that his­tor­i­cal­ly sig­nal the start of a new bull market. 

As one stands 60 days before the piv­otal moment in April 2024, a glance at Bitcoin’s past reveals a pat­tern. Pre-halv­ing price cor­rec­tions have often her­ald­ed sig­nif­i­cant ral­lies post-halving.

A Bitcoin Price Correction Before the Halving

The trend analy­sis of Bit­coin since its incep­tion in 2009 under­scores a recur­ring theme. Indeed, a notable price dip pre­cedes each halv­ing, set­ting the stage for a sub­se­quent mar­ket surge. 

For instance, in 2012, a dra­mat­ic 50.78% drop in Bitcoin’s price was observed just months before the halv­ing. How­ev­er, Bit­coin climbed to new heights there­after. Sim­i­lar pat­terns were not­ed in 2016 and 2020, with pre-halv­ing cor­rec­tions of 40.37% and a stark 63.09% drop, respec­tive­ly, fol­lowed by robust recov­er­ies post-halving.

Bitcoin Price Corrections Pre-Halving
Bit­coin Price Cor­rec­tions Pre-Halv­ing. Source: Trad­ingView

As of ear­ly 2024, Bit­coin expe­ri­enced a 21.17% growth, ignit­ing spec­u­la­tions of an impend­ing bull­ish mar­ket. How­ev­er, if his­tor­i­cal pat­terns indi­cate, the mar­ket might brace itself for a cor­rec­tion, poten­tial­ly dip­ping below $45,000 before ral­ly­ing post-halving.

Read more: Bit­coin Halv­ing Cycles and Invest­ment Strate­gies: What To Know

The Crypto Bull Market Starts Post-Halving

The sig­nif­i­cance of these halv­ing events can­not be over­stat­ed. Fol­low­ing the halv­ings in 2012, 2016, and 2020, Bit­coin wit­nessed stag­ger­ing surges of 11,000%, 3,072%, and 700%, respectively. 

These peri­ods of bull­ish momen­tum last­ed between 365 and 549 days, reflect­ing the pro­found impact halv­ings have on mar­ket dynamics.

Bitcoin Price Uptrend Post-Halving
Bit­coin Price Uptrend Post-Halv­ing. Source: Trad­ingView

Should the forth­com­ing bull mar­ket mir­ror past tra­jec­to­ries, expec­ta­tions could set the next Bit­coin mar­ket peak around April or Octo­ber 2025.

Why Sell BTC 18 Months After the Halving

Amidst these cycli­cal pat­terns, Plan B’s “Stock-to-Flow Trad­ing Rule” presents a strate­gic approach to nav­i­gat­ing the Bit­coin mar­ket. Advo­cat­ing for pur­chas­es six months before the halv­ing and sales 18 months after, this strat­e­gy aims to lever­age the pre­dictable cycli­cal behav­ior of Bit­coin prices. 

Plan B empha­sized that while this is not a pre­dic­tion mod­el, it has his­tor­i­cal­ly out­per­formed Bitcoin’s price trends, sug­gest­ing a poten­tial 4X increase in Bit­coin price in the cur­rent cycle.

“Bit­coin is at $30,000, so the strat­e­gy [antic­i­pates a] 4X in the Bit­coin price. We are await­ing the next Buy Sig­nal and we know already that the halv­ing will be around April 2024, so six months before that is around Octo­ber… Then [Bit­coin will] enter the mar­ket and will stay there for two more years until Octo­ber 2025, 24 months lat­er,” Plan B said.

Read more: Bit­coin Price Pre­dic­tion 2024/2025/2030

Bitcoin Stock-to-Flow Trading Rule
Bit­coin Stock-to-Flow Trad­ing Rule. Source: PlanBTC.com

The antic­i­pa­tion of the next bull mar­ket is ground­ed in ana­lyz­ing Bitcoin’s his­tor­i­cal price move­ments and strate­gic trad­ing mod­els like Plan B’s. As the ear­ly bull mar­ket stage is iden­ti­fied, the stage is set for sig­nif­i­cant price jumps post-April 2024 halving.

Dis­claimer

In line with the Trust Project guide­lines, this price analy­sis arti­cle is for infor­ma­tion­al pur­pos­es only and should not be con­sid­ered finan­cial or invest­ment advice. BeIn­Cryp­to is com­mit­ted to accu­rate, unbi­ased report­ing, but mar­ket con­di­tions are sub­ject to change with­out notice. Always con­duct your own research and con­sult with a pro­fes­sion­al before mak­ing any finan­cial deci­sions. Please note that our Terms and Con­di­tionsPri­va­cy Pol­i­cy, and Dis­claimers have been updated.

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