Nicholas Merten – a veteran cryptocurrency analyst and founder of DataDash – has called for Bitcoin to sink to $14,000 following its plunge below $19,000 over the weekend.
The analyst cited both technical and macroeconomic factors, including an indicator that he calls “absolutely damning” for Bitcoin’s price.
Deeper Waters for Bitcoin?
In a video published on Monday, Merten pointed out that Bitcoin’s 200-week moving average (WMA) has turned into a level of price resistance, rather than support. The primary cryptocurrency has almost always stayed above the average throughout its existence, with rare descents below it marking cyclical bottoms.
However, Bitcoin and crypto markets fell below this level during the crypto market crash in June, which saw Bitcoin plunge to $17,600. It has since ranged within the low twenty thousands – narrowly below the 200 WMA of about $23,000.
Given its inability to break back above this level, the analyst claimed that Bitcoin is now in “uncharted territory.”
“We have not seen these circumstances ever play out for Bitcoin,” he said. “Usually price breaks below the weekly moving averages, the rallies out of it, due to people buying into the capitulation.”
The founder concluded that Bitcoin’s recent price action likely signals “the end of a decade-long secular bull market” that Bitcoin has experienced throughout its life, alongside stocks. As such, he suspects that it may no longer be a leading asset compared to other commodities and equities.
According to the analyst, the cryptocurrency’s next bottom could be close to $14,000. This would mark an 80% correction from its all-time high, similar to previous bear markets.
“This is the bare minimum we can ask for at this point,” said Merten, adding that investors should consider the possibility of an even steeper decline to $10,000.
The Merge and the Macro
Commenting on Ethereum’s recent Merge, Merten labeled the upgrade “a clear ‘buy the hype, sell the news’ event.” He expects the second-largest cryptocurrency to retest the $800 to $1000 level, and possibly lower.
Contributing to potential declines is the Federal Reserve’s upcoming interest rate decision, in which the market expects another 75 basis point hike. Hawkish monetary policy has coincided with major declines in stocks and crypto throughout 2022.
This policy has created a higher cost of shelter in the United States, including sudden rises in fixed-rate mortgages. It’s also caused 2‑year Treasury bond yields to invert those of their 10 and 30-year equivalents.
Despite the potential dangers to the economy this could pose, Merten doesn’t expect the central bank to stop raising rates until it can confidently quell inflation.
“This could very well be depressionary levels of recession,” he said.