Bitcoin: Published 24 seconds ago on December 23, 2021 By Sahana Venugopal

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Those in the cryp­to-com­mu­ni­ty who were watch­ing PlanB’s stock-to-flow mod­el for Bit­coin were bank­ing on the king coin giv­ing investors a Christ­mas present by hit­ting 100k.

How­ev­er, with less than 48 hours to go before 25 Decem­ber, investors and ana­lysts must now wran­gle with the ques­tion of how to treat the S2F model.

Sashay away?

For his part, PlanB admit­ted that Bit­coin needs a “small mir­a­cle” to hit $100,000 by Christ­mas day. Even so, the ana­lyst made it clear that he isn’t giv­ing up on S2F just yet.

This is a far cry from PlanB’s com­ments in the sum­mer, when the anony­mous ana­lyst argued that he would con­sid­er S2F “inval­i­dat­ed” if Bit­coin didn’t reach $100,000 by Decem­ber or 31 Decem­ber.

When Plan B was called out on this shift in analy­sis, oth­er experts won­dered what real­ly is the right approach to take.

Pop­u­lar on-chain ana­lyst Willy Woo, for instance, point­ed out that Plan B isn’t the author­i­ty who will decide when S2F is inval­i­dat­ed – even if he is the one who cre­at­ed the model.

Mean­while, Block­stream co-founder Adam Back remarked that a mod­el is only as good as its inputs. Accord­ing to Back, errors have to be expect­ed even if the mod­el holds true in the end.

Two models stand before me, but…

The cracks start­ed appear­ing in Novem­ber when Bit­coin failed to hit its $98,000 tar­get that month. How­ev­er, this was linked to PlanB’s floor mod­el. Many investors were feel­ing the chills, but PlanB con­firmed that S2F was still in action. About the floor mod­el, he explained,

“…I see that as an out­lier and prob­a­bly a V‑shaped recov­ery after that. And then if that does not hap­pen, so if we also miss the Decem­ber [price], then the floor mod­el is out of the win­dow and bro­ken. But a mod­el – I think  that’s a good point to make – a mod­el is not bro­ken by the first miss.”

And then, came the Decem­ber crash. Now it remains to be seen if the floor mod­el will again miss its tar­gets this month.

We were all rooting for you!

At press time, Bit­coin was worth $48,342.04. The Bit­coin Fear and Greed Index flashed a val­ue of 34, sig­nal­ing the sen­ti­ment of fear.

Despite what ana­lysts have to say about Bit­coin S2F exist­ing sep­a­rate­ly from its cre­ator, thou­sands of investors will sure­ly be watch­ing Plan B’s Decem­ber tar­get and by exten­sion, PlanB himself.

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