Why This Crypto Cycle Is Teaching Investors Hard Lessons About Altcoins — And Bitcoin’s Staying Power
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The cryptocurrency market has evolved dramatically since the euphoric 2020-2021 bull run, and the latest YouTube analysis from Into The Cryptoverse founder Benjamin Cowen reveals why this cycle is fundamentally reshaping how investors should think about digital assets.
Unlike the previous cycle where “everyone felt like a genius” and nearly every altcoin participated in massive rallies, today’s market is delivering harsh lessons about sustainable investing practices. The difference comes down to one critical metric that most investors overlook.
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Cowen focuses heavily on the Advanced Decline Index for the top 100 cryptocurrencies, a metric that calculates daily advances minus daily declines. During 2020-2021, this indicator trended consistently upward, meaning broad participation across the cryptocurrency ecosystem drove total market cap growth.
Today’s cycle paints a starkly different picture. The ADI has been declining since 2021, creating a series of lower highs despite the overall crypto market cap increasing. This means only a handful of assets are responsible for the market’s gains while hundreds of altcoins continue bleeding value.
“A lot of cryptocurrencies just continue to bleed back to Bitcoin for many years and now also Ethereum,” Cowen explains, highlighting how liquidity rotates briefly through different altcoin sectors before ultimately flowing back to the market leaders.
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The current cycle is characterized by what Cowen calls “blue-chip dominance” — primarily Bitcoin and Ethereum. Bitcoin broke its all-time highs long ago and has maintained strength, while Ethereum, though still technically below previous peaks, has shown renewed momentum recently.
This concentration of gains challenges the prevailing narrative from 2020-2021, when lower interest rates and massive money printing created an environment where riskier altcoins outperformed consistently. The macroeconomic backdrop today is “almost completely opposite,” according to Cowen’s analysis.