Adjusted EPS Miss; Buying Opportunity

By Michael Kim

NASDAQ:DEFT

READ THE FULL DEFT RESEARCH REPORT

After the market close on 8/14/25, DeFi Technologies (NASDAQ:DEFT) reported 2Q25 earnings results. On an IFRS basis, DEFT reported net income per share of ($0.00). After excluding the application of the Discount for Lack of Marketability (DLOM) applied to certain SOL and AVAX tokens acquired via equity investments in private investment funds reflecting lock-up periods through 2028, Adjusted EPS came it at $0.05, or below our $0.10 estimate.

While mark-to-market noise make actual vs. estimate analysis a bit more challenging), we note core revenue (staking and lending income, management fees, trading commissions, research revenue, and DeFi Alpha arbitrage trades) came in approximately $10 million shy of our $38 million forecast – partially driven by lower-than-expected quarter-end assets and a less favorable mix (with lower-yielding BTC accounting for a higher percentage of assets). More specifically, AUM as of June 30, 2025, totaled $773 million, shy of our $891 million forecast (mostly a function of crypto market depreciation since we last marked-to-market our model).

Core expenses (operating, general and administration, share-based payments, finance costs, and fees and commissions) of $13.8 million matched our $13.9 million forecast, with higher operating, general and administrative costs and fees and commissions offset by lower share-based payments.

After updating our model for 2Q25 results, we are taking up our 2025 and 2026 forecasts from $0.39/$0.48 to $0.44/$0.52. Our revisions primarily reflect a steeper revenue growth trajectory, with our model now calling for total revenues of $218.5 million for 2025 – consistent with management’s updated guidance of $219 million, up from $201 million last quarter – given the broader crypto market rebound thus far in 3Q25, as well as more favorable margin given rising operating leverage. In fact, our back-of-the-envelope math suggests Valour’s AUM are up ~27% on a weighted-average basis since June 30, 2025, based solely on market appreciation. Notably, our 2025 revenue assumption includes a considerable step up in DeFi Alpha trading gains in the back half of this year (~$85 million vs. $17.3 million in 1H25) reflecting a building pipeline of larger potential trading opportunities.

Turning to valuation, we continue to believe DeFi Technologies is uniquely positioned to capitalize on the burgeoning digital assets ecosystem, with a diversified and differentiated portfolio of asset management, trading, infrastructure, venture capital, and research businesses. We see further room to run, as awareness and appreciation of the company’s unique business model, durable competitive advantages, considerable growth prospects, and unsustainable valuation disconnect continue to build, particularly following the stock’s more recent uplisting to the Nasdaq Capital Market. Indeed, management recently engaged service providers to better understand trading anomalies in DEFT shares across exchanges.

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