Expect crypto rally to cool in August as new tariffs raise macro concerns
August 3, 2025 Alex RustokInstitutional adoption of cryptocurrencies has been trouncing the macroeconomic narrative as the main performance driver for the past two months. Now investors should look for a reversal of that dynamic over the coming month, however. Ether stole the spotlight from bitcoin in July, roaring ahead more than 49% in the month, but bitcoin still managed an 8% gain and climbed to a new all-time high at mid-month. The price action in both coins was largely supported by inflows into ETFs – a steady stream of new investment dollars that continued in bitcoin ETFs and was coupled with a sudden explosion of flows into ether funds – as well as the new crop of crypto treasury companies focused on accumulating the coins. But after the broad sell-off in stocks and rally in bonds on Friday , following weak jobs data and President Donald Trump’s new tariffs ranging between 10% and 41% , investors expect crypto to pull back in August with traders likely to dump their more highly speculative and volatile assets. “Bitcoin is caught between ETF-driven optimism and uncertainty around global trade tensions,” said Ray Youssef, CEO of crypto app NoOnes. “It remains the risk benchmark, but it may trade in a tighter range unless a new macro catalyst emerges, such as another unexpected rate move or geopolitical shift … I expect August to be relatively muted in terms of price volatility, but deceptively active in terms of positioning.” ETH.CM= BTC.CM= mountain 2025-07-01 Ether (ETH) and bitcoin (BTC) since July 1 Given how hot cryptocurrencies and stocks were in the second quarter, some investors see any pullback as a healthy and strategic cooldown rather than a reaction to a crisis. Especially in what has historically proven a weak trading month for many markets. Among crypto-related stocks, Coinbase gained 27% in the past two months, Galaxy Digital jumped 45%, and the bitcoin miner Iren surged 76%. As part of a rotation from bitcoin to ether-focused plays, ether treasury company Bitmine Immersion soared 136% and stablecoin stock Circle surged more than 400%. “Near term, I think bitcoin stays range-bound unless we get a big macro shift,” Pauline Shangett, chief strategy officer at crypto exchange ChangeNOW, told CNBC. “ETH has more momentum thanks to ETF demand and whale activity , which could help it hold up better even in a choppy market,” she said, referring to ether, and large investors who hold large positions in a particular asset. Ether ETFs saw more than $5 billion in inflows in July alone, bringing its total inflows to $9.64 to date. Bitcoin ETFs saw monthly inflows of about $6 billion in July, out of a cumulative $55 billion since their introduction. “We are taking advantage of this consolidation and playing for this highly compelling setup to reaccelerate and break out,” Read Harvey, technical analyst at Wolfe Research, said in a note Wednesday. “For now, we’re buyers of pullbacks in the space and expect reaccelerations in coming weeks, a development that should lead to further crypto outperformance vs. equities.” Youssef at NoOnes expects bitcoin to trade between $114,000 and $120,000 for most of August, and find buying support whenever it trades between $103,000 and $109,000. If ether can hold above $3,750 per coin, bulls could push for a retest of $4,000 – a challenging psychological and technical level for traders since the 2021 bull market – with support between $3,200 and $2,900, according to Youssef. “The real wildcard is the September Fed meeting,” Youssef said. “[Chair] Jerome Powell’s remarks often create sharp, short-term volatility, and with geopolitical tensions rising, we could see sudden shifts in sentiment. Still, unless macro conditions deteriorate significantly, both BTC and ETH appear to be building momentum beneath the surface.” —CNBC’s Michael Bloom contributed reporting.