Live updates: Australian dollar at highest price since November, while Nasdaq and Bitcoin hit records

The world’s most famous cryptocurrency hit US$116,000 overnight and is now just under this. The surge is significant, with it more than 4%.

Here’s some analysis from trader Tony Sycamore.

The fireworks which were missing after yesterday’s new record high have just exploded with Bitcoin surging from $113,000 to $117,000 from 7am AEST. The rally appears to have been driving by a new wave of buying as Bitcoin pushed above yesterdays $113,000 high.

The break to new highs this week has largely followed the script after an orderly, textbook like three waves (Elliott Wave) decline from the $112,000 record high of May to the late June low of $98,240. There is scope for Bitcoin to make further gains towards $120/125k, providing it does not see a hasty retreat below short-term support at $113,000/$112,000. 

The 50% tariff that the Trump administration has slapped on Brazilian imports has rattled the global coffee market and could make the price of a cup of coffee in the US jump beyond recent highs.

Brazil is the world’s largest grower and exporter of coffee, while the US is its biggest client and the world’s largest drinker of the beverage, with nearly 200 million Americans having a cup every day.

Coffee trade sources said the new duty announced on Wednesday, if confirmed on August 1, could halt new shipments of Brazilian coffee to the US, which imported 8.14 million 60kg bags of the product from the South American country in 2024, or 33% of its total consumption.

“A tariff of this size would all but shut down that flow. Brazilian exporters won’t absorb it. US roasters can’t,” said senior coffee broker and consultant Michael Nugent, owner of California-based MJ Nugent & Co.

“Bottom line: Brazil will sell its coffee elsewhere. The US will buy coffee from someone else — Colombia, Honduras, Peru, Vietnam — but not at Brazil’s volume or price,” he said.

Traders said alternative coffee supplies would be more expensive, since there is not a lot of it in the market.

“Countries buy more from Brazil because it offers way better value versus expensive other origins,” said the director of a trading house based in the US West Coast.

Check out this feature I just had published, about a type of restructuring that’s been rising in prominence since it was introduced in 2021.

The process is billed as an alternative to liquidation, which is where an insolvent company is wound up and its creditors — entities owed cash by the business — are paid back whatever is possible out of sold-off assets, sometimes next to nothing. 

Under the Corporations Act, small business restructures (SBRs) legally allow a small business to instead ask their creditors to wipe or reduce debts, while still keeping the business going. They can only do this if there’s less than $1m in debt and none of this is owed to staff.

The process, if approved, is obviously a win for small businesses. And the vast majority are getting voted up.

But there isn’t a lot of long-term data about whether this policy is helping businesses stay afloat long term or just rack up debts again and go belly up in the long run.

Have you been a creditor in an SBR? Did you vote yes or no? Email me confidentially on terzon.emilia@abc.net.au or em.terzon@proton.me

The Aussie dollar hasn’t been faring well in recent months, with it hovering around 65 US cents for ages now. But overnight it hovered just short of 66 US cents.

As CBA notes, that’s the highest it’s been in nine months.

AUD/USD has reversed all of Monday’s losses and is trading just short of 0.66 – the highest since November 2024.  

AUD/USD was supported by improved risk appetite such as gains in equity markets and a solid US Treasury sale.  AUD lifted against all the major cross rates too. 

While the path of least resistance for AUD/USD is up in the near term, there are several key events in the next several weeks that could pull AUD/USD sharply lower such as the US CPI for June and the 1 August and 12 August expiries of the US ‘trade truce’. 

As CBA notes, there are some factors that could push up the USD in coming days, which would push down the AUD against it.

There is further upside to the USD over the next week in our view.  For example, next week’s US CPI could show more impact of tariffs on goods inflation that pushes out market pricing for a cut in the Funds rate in September.  Market pricing has shifted a long way against a 25bp cut in September from 116% on 2 July to 72% currently. 

You probably remember the initial reaction to Trump’s tariffs earlier this year, which sent markets into a tailspin. (I still recall the person on the street, who told me on camera that the world was collapsing in on itself “like a giant flan”.)

Well, if the reaction to extra tariffs on copper and pharma announced this week are any indicator, financial markets have now learned to keep on carrying on.

Head of client coverage for FTSE Russell, Julia Lee walks us through why there was a muted market reaction to Donald Trump’s tariff announcement of 50 per cent on copper to take effect on August 1.

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You might have seen our reporter Adelaide Miller keeping across this saga at super fund HESTA, where members couldn’t access their super for a long period.

HESTA’s chief operating officer, Stephen Reilly says most super fund members can access their money now and there is “no systemic issue”.

You can watch this interview here.

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The Nvidia effect continues, with the computer chip company’s record US$4 trillion valuation pushing up tech stocks in general.

Wall Street indexes hit record highs overnight (our time) while the world’s most famous cryptocurrency has also hit a fresh high, with Bitcoin above US$113,000 as investors seek out risk again.

Here in Australia, there are no major data movers expected today, but we will see if the rolling announcements about US President Donald Trump’s tariffs are having any more impact on our dollar.

It’s hovering up closer towards 66 US cents.