Bitwise Says Crypto Market Poised for Strong H2 Despite Slow Start
Bitwise’s CIO says it’s still too early to call predictions for BTC all-time highs and ETF flows for this year.
With the first half of 2025 now wrapped up, asset management firm Bitwise checked in on several bold predictions it made in December in this week’s memo from the firm’s CIO, Matt Hougan. And while only two predictions have panned out so far, the firm believes that H2 could be when things really take off.
The biggest prediction, that “Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Solana will hit new all-time highs, with Bitcoin (BTC) trading above $200,000,” is still to be determined. BTC hit a new all-time high of nearly $112,000 in May, however, it is currently trading below $108,000 today, July 4.
Meanwhile, Ethereum (ETH) and Solana (SOL) are down year-to-date. Specifically, ETH is trading at $2,500, down about 24% since the start of the year and nearly 49% below its 2021 ATH, while SOL is changing hands at $146, down 25% since Jan. 1 and also about 50% below its ATH price.
Still, Hougan said that strong trends are in play that could change things going into the second half of 2025. “There’s a structural mismatch between supply and demand in the bitcoin market,” Hougan told The Defiant in comments this week, continuing:
“So far this year, the bitcoin network has produced around 80,000 BTC, while ETFs and corporates have gobbled up more than 300,000 BTC. The biggest reason we expect a H2 melt-up is that we expect this supply/demand mismatch to persist, and for the demand to eventually exhaust willing sellers.”
He added that Bitwise also expects H2 to be a very strong period for BTC, with its price still potentially reaching $200,000 by the end of the year. “There’s some reflexivity in flows: Higher prices yield higher flows,” he said.
Bitwise’s crypto predictions underscore a market still rapidly evolving. While some predictions have played out, it’s clear that regulatory changes and institutional interest will continue to alter the landscape.
More Predictions
Another prediction from Bitwise that remains up in the air is that spot Bitcoin ETFs will attract more flows in 2025 than they did in 2024. So far, ETFs have drawn in around $13 billion, per the memo, well below last year’s $35 billion total. But Bitwise sees that changing.
“We’ve seen a large number of national account platforms like Wells Fargo approve bitcoin ETFs for their advisors in the last three months,” Hougan told The Defiant. “This is a huge source of new demand. As these advisors start buying, we expect flows to ramp up.”
Bitwise’s prediction that Coinbase would surpass Charles Schwab in valuation appears “less likely,” according to the memo. Schwab’s market cap is at about $166 billion today, while Coinbase’s sits around $90.6 billion. Hougan said that the gap is less about Coinbase underperforming and more about traditional finance (TradFi) catching a tailwind.
“Coinbase has had a great year, up 43%, but not great enough to narrow the gap with Schwab,” Hougan said. “I think investors haven’t fully grasped that we’re in the midst of a full-scale revolution in how finance works: from bank wires to stablecoins, from T+1 settlement to tokenized stocks.”
Hougan said that Coinbase is at the center of major changes in finance, and that Bitwise expects its stock to rise as more investors catch on. “We’re very bullish on the stock,” he added.
Coinbase hit a major milestone in May as the first crypto-native firm to join the S&P 500 where within days it was a top performer in the index, despite criticism from the crypto industry after news broke it had suffered a data breach.
Fellow U.S.-based crypto giant Circle, issuer of the world’s second-largest stabecoin, went public last month in a blockbuster IPO in which it raised over $1 billion, but left another $1.7 billion on the table.