BTC Price Rallied 80% Last Time This Happened

July 4, 2025 Alex Rustok

Key takeaways:

  • Bitcoin’s funding rate briefly turned negative in late June, historically a signal for upcoming rallies.

  • A large concentration of short liquidations near $111,320 could fuel a short squeeze.

  • BTC has broken out of a bull flag, targeting $117,500, new research suggests.

Bitcoin (BTC) future’s perpetual funding rate dipped into negative territory in late June, a period that saw BTC’s spot price rise to around $108,000 from below $100,000.

BTC futures perpetual funding rate (7DMA). Source: CryptoQuant

Such a divergence signals a major price boom ahead for Bitcoin, history may indicate.

BTC bulls could trigger a short squeeze

A negative funding rate means short-position holders are paying long traders to keep their positions open, a sign of bearish market sentiment.

However, a negative funding rate during a general price uptrend often results in an overcrowded short trade vulnerable to a short squeeze.

In the case of Bitcoin, similar funding rate flips in September 2024 and July 2023 preceded 80% and 150% gains, respectively.

BTC futures perpetual funding rate (7DMA). Source: CryptoQuant

BTC funding’s latest recovery into positive territory mirrors those prior setups, suggesting that the bearish reset may have already played out and the market is once again gearing up for a fresh leg higher.

Related: Bitcoin’s STH cost basis suggests $117K is the next stop for BTC price

The $111,320 level on the BTC/USDT pair shows the highest concentration of predicted liquidations in the past three months, with an estimated $520.31 million in leveraged positions at risk, according to CoinGlass data.

Binance BTC/USDT liquidation heatmap (3 months). Source: CoinGlass

Tapping this liquidity could trigger a short squeeze, where forced buybacks from short traders drive prices higher.

Bitcoin targets $117,500 after bull flag breakout

Bitcoin technicals, meanwhile, show a breakout underway above the upper trendline of a bull flag pattern on the daily chart.

BTC/USD daily price chart. Source: TradingView

Based on the prior flagpole, the pattern’s measured move points to a potential target near $117,500, closely aligning with 10x Research’s head of research, Markus Thielen’s $116,000 forecast for the end of July.

This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.