Altcoin Season Delayed as Investors Pull $36 Billion from Market
Despite Bitcoin’s recent climb above $110,000, altcoins remain stuck in a bearish rut, raising doubts about whether the long-awaited “altcoin season” will materialize anytime soon. According to a June 18 analysis, one metric tells a compelling story. The 1–Year Cumulative Buy/Sell Quote Volume Difference for Altcoins, excluding Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH), now sits at –$36 billion. This level suggests investors are still pulling money from the altcoin market.
The net demand from traders putting buy versus sell quotes on altcoin pairs across exchanges is reflected in this metric. It often indicates peak interest and occasionally a local top when it flips positive, as it did in December 2024. The trend has since reversed, with sustained outflows rather than inflows, as confirmed by the current reading which is in extremely negative territory. In short, altcoin investors are still sitting on the sidelines, even as Bitcoin dominates headlines.
Historically, the altcoin season follows a predictable pattern. Early bull cycles see Bitcoin at the forefront, particularly after halving events, which attract significant capital. As Bitcoin cools and starts to consolidate, investors often shift their gains into altcoins, fueling large-cap rallies like those seen with Ethereum. This rotation is typically followed by sector-specific spikes in memecoins, AI tokens, and other narrative-driven assets. However, current conditions do not favor this shift. The Altcoin Season Index is stuck below 30, well below the 75 threshold required for an altcoin season. Bitcoin dominance remains high at 64%, and risk appetite outside of BTC and ETH appears muted. While the ETH/BTC ratio is rising, currently at 0.02405, and Ethereum has recently outperformed Bitcoin on a 90-day basis, these signals are preliminary and not conclusive.
Macroeconomic factors may also be delaying the altcoin season. Continuous quantitative tightening and persistently high interest rates limit the capital available for speculative assets like altcoins. Some analysts predict a shift in late 2025 if rate cuts occur or Bitcoin’s dominance wanes. Others caution that the wait may extend until 2026 if there is no clear Ethereum breakout or regulatory clarity. For now, the signal is clear: the path to altcoin season remains blocked in the absence of a reversal in volume flows, and the $36 billion in lost demand is a significant hurdle to overcome.
