Bitcoin eyes $113K, but why the breakout might lack substance

• Long-term BTC holders dominate as new investor inflows stay weak.
• Rising Bitcoin Coin Days Destroyed and clustered short liquidations signal elevated volatility with fading on-chain support.

Bitcoin’s [BTC] rally appears to be maturing.

According to UTXO Age Band data, coins held for 6–12 months now dominate, while long-term holders—especially those above the 1-year mark—continue to exit.

Simultaneously, the share of new investors—those holding coins for less than a month—has dropped below 20%, far from the 50%+ typically seen at cycle tops. 

Therefore, BTC’s recent high appears to be driven by internal cycling rather than fresh capital, creating a scenario where existing holders rotate positions amid weakening inflows. 

Source: CryptoQuant

Dormant coins awaken as CDD rises

Naturally, when older coins move, the Coin Days Destroyed (CDD) metric rises. That’s what happened here, with CDD climbing 2.09% to 26.1 million.

This suggests older coins are on the move. This metric accumulates value when dormant coins get transacted, often preceding market shifts. 

Historically, a rise in CDD has aligned with distribution phases, where long-held BTC enters circulation for profit realization.

Hence, the metric supports the observed outflow of long-term holders and growing 6–12 month activity. 

If the trend persists, Bitcoin could face overhead pressure from gradual sell-offs by experienced investors seizing gains near peak levels.

Source: CryptoQuant

Is Bitcoin losing its scarcity appeal?

Meanwhile, Bitcoin’s Stock-to-Flow Ratio dropped by 20%, suggesting its scarcity premium is weakening. The S2F model, which historically underpinned long-term bullish narratives, now reflects diminished conviction. 

When scarcity weakens amid low new demand, price appreciation becomes harder to sustain.

Source: CryptoQuant

However, exchange reserves dropped by 1.83% to $258.53 billion, indicating fewer coins are available for immediate sale. 

While this often suggests reduced sell-side pressure, it can also imply shrinking liquidity. With fewer coins on exchanges, volatility may increase if demand abruptly changes. 

Moreover, the absence of significant inflows from retail buyers exacerbates the liquidity risk. 

Will short liquidations above $107K drive the next move?

Here’s the twist: the BTC/USDT Liquidation Map showed a massive short squeeze zone sitting between $107K and $113K.

If BTC clears the $107K level, the ensuing short squeeze could trigger a sharp upward spike. However, leverage on long positions appears modest, suggesting that bulls remain cautious. 

This cautious sentiment aligns with reduced new investor activity and rising CDD. Consequently, any potential upside may be temporary unless broader market engagement strengthens. 

Source: CoinGlass

Can BTC sustain without new investor participation?

BTC’s recent surge appears driven more by internal cycling among existing holders than genuine demand expansion.

The rise in CDD, drop in S2F, and weakening new investor inflow all point to an aging rally. 

While short liquidation clusters provide near-term upside potential, long-term sustainability hinges on renewed interest from fresh capital. 

Unless the share of new investors begins to grow, BTC risks entering a stagnation or correction phase—despite temporarily bullish triggers.