Ethereum: Long-term holders return – What it means for ETH’s next move

• Ethereum nears $1,367 MVRV band, a level that sparked past bullish reversals.
• Whale outflows and falling exchange reserves indicate quiet accumulation amid investor losses.

Ethereum [ETH] is steadily drifting toward its long-standing accumulation threshold—the MVRV Pricing Band—currently positioned at $1,367. 

Historically, each retest of this level has coincided with major market bottoms, notably in 2019 and mid-2022, which led to substantial price recoveries. 

Therefore, as ETH approaches this key zone once again, traders are watching closely to see whether history will repeat itself or if a deeper correction lies ahead.

Ethereum: Pressure builds for a breakout

The broader price structure remains tightly bound within a descending parallel channel, stretching back to late 2024. At the time of writing, ETH traded at $1,623.10, reflecting a 1.19% drop in the last 24 hours.

The immediate resistance lay at $1,679, while the critical breakout level was situated at $2,117. 

However, Ethereum continues to struggle at the mid-range of this channel, and without a decisive bullish breakout, a revisit to the lower band support appears increasingly likely.

Price action suggests the current relief bounce may be short-lived unless accompanied by strong market confirmation.

Source: TradingView

Whales and reserves point to stealth accumulation

Additionally, exchange behavior supports the possibility of strategic accumulation. Exchange reserves have dropped by 3.8% over the past week, pushing the total down to $30.93 billion. 

This consistent decline reflects growing investor confidence in holding assets off centralized platforms, which typically correlates with bullish intent.

Lower reserves reduce potential sell pressure, making conditions more favorable for a possible price floor formation.

Meanwhile, Ethereum whale activity reveals a meaningful shift in positioning. Over the past 30 days, large holder outflows soared by 216.21%, while inflows climbed by 125.29%.

Notably, outflows also rose 34.72% in just the past seven days, suggesting whales are increasingly relocating their holdings, likely into cold wallets. 

This behavior indicates a preference for longer-term holding and risk reduction rather than immediate speculative selling.

Whale dynamics further validate the view that accumulation is underway at these depressed levels.

Source: IntoTheBlock

Majority investors remain underwater

Investor sentiment, however, remains severely challenged. A staggering 73.08% of ETH holders are currently “Out of the Money,” holding assets above the prevailing market price.

In contrast, only 20.92% are in profit, while the remaining 6% sit at breakeven. 

Such heavy unrealized losses can often trigger panic selling, but they also historically mark the end stages of bear cycles.

This deep red zone may act as a psychological reset that fuels new demand as weaker hands exit and stronger ones accumulate.

Source: IntoTheBlock

Conclusion

Ethereum’s convergence of technical compression, falling reserves, rising whale outflows, and mass unrealized losses all point toward a market near exhaustion. 

While ETH still trades below key resistance and remains structurally weak, the emerging on-chain signals suggest that the $1,367 MVRV zone may once again serve as the launchpad for the next recovery.

However, bulls must reclaim key levels soon to prevent deeper downside pressure.