Is Bitcoin Repeating History? A Look at On-Chain Data Trends

Bitcoin’s (BTC) recent price movements have raised speculations about the possible end of the bull market and the onset of a bear season. Investors are wondering if the leading digital asset is entering a period of continued downturn and sideways movement, but analysts still insist there is hope.

The on-chain analyst and bitcoin insights provider IT Tech believes data from previous market cycles could help predict the future of this bull market and reveal if BTC has peaked for the season. The firm focused on bitcoin’s transaction volume across previous bull and bear cycles.

Historical Bitcoin Trends

During the bull cycle of 2016-2017, when BTC rallied to roughly $20,000, the market witnessed rising activity in large transactions, which are transfers greater than $1 million. As bitcoin’s price climbed, large investors accumulated heavily, driving the market to new highs.

By the bear market of 2018-2019, institutional activity had dwindled; however, investors were still accumulating at a slower pace while BTC was consolidating. On the other hand, smaller investors gradually stepped in to buy the dip.

Then came the bull run of 2020-2021, during which institutional adoption drove BTC to $69,000. IT Tech revealed that the euphoria at the time was driven by massive transaction volumes in the >$1 million range, indicating that the market saw significant interest from big players.

More Room for Growth

Following the 2022 crash, BTC consolidated around $20,000. Large investors were still accumulating; however, transaction volumes hovered below the peaks seen in 2020 and 2021.

Analyzing data in the current cycle, IT Tech noted the emergence of new activity in low-value transactions, that is, those between $0 – $1 and $100 – $1,000. Smaller BTC investors are now increasingly active, highlighting a season of retail fear of missing out (FOMO).

While small investors continue to participate in the market, trading volumes for larger transactions have yet to reach levels seen in previous bull cycles. IT Tech said this suggests that whales and institutions are still quietly accumulating BTC. It also means that the market is yet to see the euphoric phase of this bull cycle.

According to IT Tech, an explosive growth in the >$1 million range could signal the beginning of market euphoria. Until that happens, the current level of accumulation indicates that the market still has room for growth.

Nevertheless, the on-chain analyst insists that mid-sized transactions ($1,000 – $10,000) are just as important in this cycle because an increase in this range often comes before a broader market rally.