XRP targets US$5 as SEC appeal withdrawal speculation and ETF optimism grow
16th March 2025 – (New York) XRP advanced by 1.45% on Saturday, following a 4.66% rally on Friday, closing at $2.3925. This marked a five-session winning streak for the cryptocurrency, outperforming the broader crypto market, which gained 0.98%, pushing total market capitalisation to $2.72 trillion.
XRP’s recent performance has seen it surpass Ethereum (ETH) in fully diluted valuation (FDV), securing its position as the second-largest cryptocurrency by FDV. However, it continues to trail ETH in CoinMarketCap rankings.
The rally has been fuelled by growing investor speculation that the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) may withdraw its appeal in the Ripple case. Hopes of a settlement have contributed to increased demand for XRP, seen as a key player in the evolving regulatory landscape.
Since establishing its Crypto Task Force, the SEC has taken significant actions that have heightened market speculation. These include withdrawing an appeal in the Blockchain Association case, dismissing enforcement actions against major platforms like Coinbase and Kraken, and requesting stays in cases involving Binance and Lejilex.
In the Ripple case, the SEC must respond to Ripple’s appeal-related filings by April 16, giving both parties additional time to consider a potential settlement. Reports suggest that Ripple is negotiating a $125 million settlement and an injunction requiring compliance with Section 5 of the U.S. Securities Act.
If the SEC withdraws its appeal, it would eliminate legal uncertainties surrounding XRP and mark a significant victory for Ripple. However, Ripple’s absence from recent Crypto Task Force meetings raises questions about the immediacy of any potential settlement.
XRP’s price outlook hinges on two primary factors: the SEC’s appeal decision and the potential approval of XRP-spot exchange-traded funds (ETFs).
- Bullish scenario: If the SEC withdraws its appeal, XRP could surpass its all-time high of $3.5505. Approval of XRP-spot ETFs may further bolster institutional demand, potentially driving prices toward $5.
- Bearish scenario: Conversely, if the SEC proceeds with its appeal and delays XRP-spot ETF approvals, XRP could decline below $1.50.
On the technical front, XRP remains below its 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA), a key resistance level, but holds above its 200-day EMA, signalling long-term support. A break above the 50-day EMA could see XRP target the March 2 high of $3.0153 and potentially the January 16 high of $3.3999. However, a drop below the $1.9299 support level could expose XRP to further losses.
The National Weather Service’s Storm Prediction Center has issued a “high risk” warning for severe weather, which could impact broader market sentiment. XRP’s recent surge reflects heightened expectations for regulatory clarity and institutional adoption, with analysts predicting that a favourable SEC decision could drive significant price gains.
Investors are closely monitoring developments in the SEC-Ripple case, as well as broader macroeconomic factors, including U.S. Federal Reserve policy and geopolitical tensions. The outcome of these regulatory and market forces will likely dictate XRP’s next major move. With its five-day winning streak and growing optimism around regulatory clarity, XRP remains a focal point of investor interest. Whether it can sustain its upward momentum will depend on key regulatory decisions in the coming weeks.