Bitcoin enters distribution phase – Is a market shift here?
- Bitcoin’s price rise signaled impressive growth, but warnings of a potential distribution phase have emerged.
- Retail and institutional investors drove demand, with key indicators pointing toward future volatility.
After a remarkable surge of over 129% in the past year, Bitcoin [BTC] has crossed the $100k mark, prompting many analysts to declare it in the late stages of its bull market.
While the price rise signals impressive growth, experts are beginning to warn that Bitcoin could be entering the early distribution phase, a typical precursor to the final leg of a bull run before the market experiences a cooling period.
As market sentiment shifts and key indicators point toward potential volatility, the question arises: Are we witnessing the peak of this rally, or is there still room for further gains before the inevitable correction?
Understanding market cycles with Dow theory
The Dow Theory offers a useful framework for understanding Bitcoin’s current market position by dividing market movements into two key phases: accumulation and distribution.
Historically, Bitcoin has followed this cyclical pattern. In 2022, BTC underwent a clear distribution phase, characterized by a decline in prices after the bull run of the previous year.
Source: CryptoQuant
By the turn of 2023, Bitcoin entered an accumulation phase as investors sought to rebuild positions at lower price levels.
This accumulation phase extended through 2024 before transitioning into the current early distribution phase in 2025.
Technical inflection points, marked by changes in volume and price structure, have historically signaled these transitions.
The attached Bitcoin price and volume chart clearly illustrates this progression, showing the cycles of accumulation and distribution.
The role of retail and institutional investors
A notable feature of the current market phase is the renewed involvement of retail investors.
Despite Bitcoin reaching its six-figure milestone, retail participation continues to grow, providing liquidity and driving demand in the market.
Meanwhile, institutional players remain pivotal in shaping Bitcoin’s trajectory. MicroStrategy’s continued pro-cyclical purchase program highlights this dynamic.
In early 2025, the company added 10,107 bitcoins to its balance sheet, bringing its total holdings to 471,107 units.
Such significant purchases signal confidence in Bitcoin’s long-term potential and act as a leading indicator of market sentiment.
Bitcoin: Price structure and room for growth
Despite entering the distribution phase, Bitcoin’s current price structure suggests that the market is far from overheating.
We’re in the late stage of the #Bitcoin bull market, but I believe there’s still room for growth. I’d say we’re in the early distribution phase, as new retail investors are entering. Trump’s global promotional impact could extend this bull run for another couple of quarters.
According to Ki Young Ju, Bitcoin’s Funding Rate remains relatively low, mirroring levels last seen in the summer of 2024.
This indicates that the market is not overly leveraged and supports further spot price discovery.
Bitcoin’s “fair price,” calculated through a power-law fit, sits at $87.99K and serves as a crucial support level.
Read Bitcoin’s [BTC] Price Prediction 2025–2026
As long as prices stay above this threshold, the bull market remains intact.
Analysts also point out that stable macroeconomic conditions could create opportunities for further price increases before the inevitable correction.