Stocks, gold, bitcoin in the first 100 days of Trump’s presidency
January 21, 2025 Alex RustokWall Street investors believe that, at least in the short term, certain asset classes such as gold and bitcoin could be fated to mirror their performances from the first time Donald Trump took office in 2017. The sentiment around Trump’s pro-business second term has been largely bullish, with the broad S & P 500 benchmark rising nearly 4% since the presidential election. On Friday, the index jumped 2.9% for its best weekly performance since early November. But that outperformance has not been reflective of the current uncertainty looming over the market. Investors have been debating whether the market can continue its bull run in the face of expected tariffs, a waning rate cut cycle and questions over the new administration’s regulatory policies. Against this backdrop, CNBC Pro examined how certain assets fared during the first 100 days of Trump’s last presidency. We also asked three investors whether the same performance can be expected this time around. Here’s what they said. Major U.S. indexes All three major indexes surged during the first 100 days of Trump’s last term in 2017: The S & P 500 rose 5.3%, the blue-chip Dow Jones Industrial Average jumped 6.1% and the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite popped 9.2%. But this time, investors are saying that the market may not experience another substantial rally. “In contrast to Trump 1.0, we’ve seen the S & P 500 have two consecutive years of nearly 25% returns. It’s really challenging to have a repeat unless we see additional consumer strength and additional profits from corporations,” said Jeff Kilburg, founder and CEO of KKM Financial. Ultimately, a pause in the rally makes sense at this point as investors wait to assess what the new administration might bring, added Art Hogan, chief market strategist at B. Riley Wealth Management. “We’re coming into a new administration this year that brings with it uncertainty over what new policy will look like,” he told CNBC. “I think investors in large part likely take a wait-and-see attitude, and that’s pretty apparent thus far this year. We’re basically flat on the year.” S & P 500 sectors In 2017, the information technology sector rose 11.5% during Trump’s first 100 days in office, while energy tumbled 8.2%. But so far this year, the energy sector has been leading the market with a 9.2% gain, while technology stocks — down 0.2% — compose the S & P’s second-worst performing sector. All three investors think that energy stocks could continue their dominance going forward. “The supply and demand for energy product is much more balanced than what has been reflected in the commodity prices,” Hogan said. “Energy is trading at very, very reasonable multiples and throwing off dividends across the board that are attractive. It’s going to be one of the better performing sectors.” While the artificial intelligence trade will continue to boost tech stocks, the investors don’t see the sector outperforming at the same levels in 2025. “We have to temper expectations that we’re not going to see the same parabolic gains in the alpha-producing vehicle it’s been for the last couple of years out of COVID,” Kilburg said. “Technology is still going to be a theme in 2025, but I think there’s a massive repricing coming in the first half of the year just because they’ve gotten too big, too fast.” As for the other sectors, both Hogan and Kilburg think that health care could outperform in the near future. Hogan also highlighted financials as another attractive sector on the back of a healthier interest rate environment for banks and a pickup in capital markets activity. Crude oil Crude oil prices were volatile during the first 100 days of Trump’s first term, but ultimately ended lower than where they began. All three investors predict that crude oil prices will rise this time around. “My thesis was that if Trump is able to bring peace in the Middle East — which seemingly he has already brought here before the inauguration — then the price of oil is going to go up,” Kilburg said. Indeed, West Texas Intermediate crude futures and Brent crude futures are both up more than 8% in 2025. Peter Boockvar, chief investment officer of Bleakley Financial Group, cited the U.S’s new sanctions against Russian oil producers as another potential catalyst of a rally in crude oil prices. Hogan added that lighter regulation from Trump’s second term could help with energy distribution and transportation, ultimately benefiting overall supply. Gasoline Gas prices rose from January to April 2017, but it might be more difficult to predict their trajectory this time around since gasoline still hasn’t reflected the move higher in crude oil prices, Boockvar said. Hogan thinks that gasoline prices will stay the same as long as crude oil prices remain rangebound. “We’re likely going to see the average price per barrel of oil in the $75 to $85 range for WTI. That translates to at or about $3 in gasoline, all things remain equal,” he said. “I don’t see much change to that.” On the flip side, Kilburg thinks that pain at the pump will increase for U.S. consumers. “It’s coming from a lower price because of the depressed price of crude oil. So I think that’s going to be a hurdle for the administration for the first 100 days,” he told CNBC. Gold and bitcoin All three investors think that gold will rise over the next 100 days, as it did in 2017. Hogan cited geopolitical uncertainty as a catalyst, and Kilburg pointed to inflation concerns. “Gold has been able to rally in the face of a strong dollar and rising real rates, and that’s because of the voracious demand from central banks. I don’t see that changing because of the new administration,” Boockvar added. “If anything, if we start to tariff people, I think people will be more inclined to be buying gold.” On the other hand, a more crypto-friendly administration and the broader acceptance of bitcoin as an asset class could certainly continue to boost the flagship cryptocurrency’s price, Hogan said. Bitcoin extended its rally last week and topped the $100,000 level. However, Kilburg sees a potential retracement ahead for the cryptocurrency. “It’s an old adage to buy the rumor, sell the news. If we don’t have the U.S. government buying bitcoin in the first 100 days, then we will see a pullback in bitcoin,” he said. U.S. dollar The value of the U.S. dollar rose against other major currencies from January to April 2017. Since Trump’s reelection, the dollar has similarly risen on the back of his more protectionist and pro-tariff policies. But both Boockvar and Hogan think that this rally may soon run out of steam. “I have a feeling that Trump’s going to want a weaker dollar. So if I have to, I’m guessing that the strength we’ve seen in the dollar’s probably reflected most of the strength that we’re going to see,” Boockvar said. Hogan added that a declining gross domestic product rate in the U.S. may put a lid on a strong dollar in the near term. “I think that we enter the new administration likely at a bit of a peak for the dollar,” he said. “But I certainly don’t think it’s going to collapse and become a negative at any point.” On the other hand, Kilburg was a little more optimistic in believing that the greenback will continue to increase in value. “I think the dollar is going to continue to rise, but we’re not going to see another 10% leg higher unless we see something massive tariff-wise,” he said. U.S. 2-year and 10-year Treasury yields Since 2017, yields on the U.S. benchmark Treasurys have moved much higher. On Friday, the 2-year Treasury yield was at about 4.283%, while the benchmark 10-year Treasury yield was at 4.623%. Since the front end of the yield curve is driven by the federal funds rate, the three investors agreed that the two-year Treasury yield will likely stay at its current levels. “The two-year likely continues to mirror what our interpretation of the Fed monetary policy is going to be, and if they only cut rates one more time, it’s probably at the right place,” Hogan said. The 10-year yield, which is more reflective of investor sentiment around economic growth, will likely settle into a range of between 4.25% to 4.75%, Hogan added. On the other hand, both Broockvar and Kilburg see yields on longer-dated bonds moving higher. Kilburg thinks that the yield curve could steepen from here temporarily as bondholders demand more reward for the risk they take. “I actually think we’re going to have a short-term move in the 10-year above 5%. Then there’ll be a flush out of repositioning by some of the biggest institutionally positioned Treasury holders, and then it’ll kind of settle back in at 4.5%,” Kilburg said. “But I think the first 100 days are going to be massively volatile for interest rates.”