Crypto bull run pauses as Bitcoin enters pre-halving danger zone
(Kitco News) – Cryptocurrency traders are finally getting the opportunity to take a break, evaluate their portfolios, and make necessary changes as Bitcoin (BTC) bulls have paused their stampede to graze in the pastures near support at $67,000 on Monday.
Stocks traded higher, led by the tech sector, as investors brushed aside concerns about higher-for-longer interest rates ahead of this week’s Federal Open Market Committee meeting, where the central bank will decide on interest rates.
The CME FedWatch tool shows expectations of ‘no change’ are at 99%, so traders have instead turned to news headlines to determine their next moves. With positive developments from NVIDIA and Google leading the news, many saw this as a good opportunity to dive back into the markets, resulting in a positive close for the major indices.
At the closing bell, the S&P, Dow, and Nasdaq finished up 0.63%, 0.20%, and 0.82%, respectively.
Data provided by TradingView shows that Bitcoin saw volatile trading near the $68,000 handle in the early hours on Monday before bears managed to drop it to a low of $66,575 in the afternoon. They are now locked in a battle with bulls for control of the price action, and at the time of writing, BTC trades at $67,530, a decrease of 1.05% on the 24-hour chart.
BTC/USD Chart by TradingView
According to analysts at Crypto Chiefs, the 2021 all-time-high is now “acting as resistance ($69k+) since the price accepted back below,” and they “would like to see 4-hour acceptance above $69k, as we can then see a push to the DM VAH at $71.8k.”
“Until this happens then we cannot rule out a move lower,” the analysts warned.
And there’s a good chance that a move lower will come, as tomorrow, “Bitcoin will officially enter the ‘Danger Zone’ (orange) where historical Pre-Halving Retraces have begun,” market analyst Rekt Capital said in a post on X.
“Historically, Bitcoin has performed pre-halving retraces 14-28 days before the Halving,” Rekt Capital said. “In 2020, this retrace was -20% deep and began 14 days before the halving. This retrace lasted only a few days but preceded an over 150-day re-accumulation period before Bitcoin broke out into its parabolic uptrend.”
“In 2016, the PreHalving Retrace was -40% deep and began 28 days before the halving,” he added. “This retrace lasted 8 weeks in total before Bitcoin broke out into a parabolic uptrend. Currently, $BTC is approximately 29 days away from the halving and has pulled back -11% last week.”
MN Trading founder Michaël van de Poppe said he thinks that the pre-halving upside for Bitcoin has been captured, and warned that a sub $60,000 BTC price is still possible as traders start to rotate into altcoins.
I think #Bitcoin has captured most of the upside pre-halving.
Perhaps, liquidity around the highs will be taken, but I think we’ll rotate towards altcoins in the coming period.
Ultimately, Bitcoin <$60K is still a potential one. pic.twitter.com/d2yEapwDdL
— Michaël van de Poppe (@CryptoMichNL) March 17, 2024
While the potential for a deeper pullback remains, market analyst Moustache spotted a sign that any weakness will be temporary as Bitcoin is poised to undergo a parabolic move higher.
Sometimes you have to dig a little deeper to find out where $BTC is in the cycle.
Whenever $BTC has broken through the blue line in the Mayer Multiple-Indicator AND at the same time is close to/or above the ATH, the parabolic move started a short time later.🔍🔥 pic.twitter.com/RvX6OhAFzW
— 𝕄𝕠𝕦𝕤𝕥𝕒𝕔ⓗ𝕖 🧲 (@el_crypto_prof) March 18, 2024
Altcoins slide lower, led by meme coins
Altcoins largely followed Bitcoin’s lead lower on Monday as the vast majority of tokens in the top 200 recorded losses.
Mantra (OM) was the biggest trend bucker, climbing 37.8% to trade at $0.796, while JOE (JOE) gained 32.2%, and Jito (JTO) increased 18%. Book of Meme (MEME) led the losers with a decline of 32.5%, followed by a loss of 16.6% for Floki (FLOKI), and a 14.5% pullback for Helium Mobile (MOBILE).
The overall cryptocurrency market cap now stands at $2.54 trillion, and Bitcoin’s dominance rate is 52.1%.
Disclaimer: The views expressed in this article are those of the author and may not reflect those of Kitco Metals Inc. The author has made every effort to ensure accuracy of information provided; however, neither Kitco Metals Inc. nor the author can guarantee such accuracy. This article is strictly for informational purposes only. It is not a solicitation to make any exchange in commodities, securities or other financial instruments. Kitco Metals Inc. and the author of this article do not accept culpability for losses and/ or damages arising from the use of this publication.
