Bitcoin Bubble 2024 Begins

Up like a rocket, down like a rock. This is the story of bitcoin and what drives its magnetic allure. Time after time the bitcoin boom/bust cycle has delivered the goods for the high risk speculator and here we are in the next crypto vertical.

To me this looks like a classic breakout and it is about time that it happened seeing how core to my model is the impending halvening. This event, where new bitcoin supply halves, has driven bitcoin prices before and it’s fair to guess that halving the supply has led to a doubling of price. The due date for the event is April 19, now only two months away, so that it is a good suggestion that the market should adjust to this time horizon and start to motor.

Here is the chart as I began to write this article ($47,500):

Now in my book this leads to this a quick rise to above $60,000:

And by the time this article was finished, bitcoin
BTC
has jumped again underlining the strength of this thesis.

This, of course, will make perfect sense to a bull, with another leg up to $100,000 and beyond on the cards as far as they are concerned.

The below was the final barrier to the next leg up. Bitcoin rose immediately above $50,000, hesitated, pulled back below $50,000 and then smashed through this morning to $51000, a clear level above the below break out level.

This is extremely bullish.

I have written over and over the way to play bitcoin is to dollar cost average (DCA) and that is still the way to go. Jumping into a market boots first is not great for mental health, and as anyone who has dollar cost averaged in will say, it smooths out the emotional highs and lows of building a position by avoiding the sort of whiplash that can make you bail on a perfectly good strategy because the stakes get too frightening too fast.

DCA is still the way to go but for reckless plungers the time is highly suggestive of an imminent vertical.