Bitcoin Price Surges to Start October. Why the Gains Could Get Even Better.

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Bitcoin
and other cryptocurrencies marched higher Monday as digital assets blew through an established range to start a new month of trading. With October a historically good month for cryptos, analysts are bullish on the coming weeks.

The price of Bitcoin has risen 4% over the past 24 hours to $28,300, rallying from below $27,000 on Saturday to hit its highest level in more than a month. The largest digital asset has mostly been stuck in a stagnant trading range around $26,000 since mid-August, amid historically low volatility and trading volumes, with the latest pop marking a return to Bitcoin’s characteristic excitement.

“October—or ‘Uptober’ as it’s known—is already living up its reputation as Bitcoin’s favorite month with Bitcoin rising to a six-week high,” said Antoni Trenchev, founder and managing partner at crypto lender Nexo. “Let’s not get too excited until Bitcoin breaks out of the $26,000 to $30,000 range where it’s been languishing for most of the past six months.”

There were few immediate catalysts to explain the move higher in Bitcoin, though leverage building up in the Bitcoin perpetual futures market—the most liquid market in all of crypto—likely helped prime the pump. Some $270 million worth of short positions betting on a fall in prices have been wiped out since last week, according to Coinglass data, as Bitcoin prices began to surge higher from the low $26,000s, adding upside momentum to the existing rally.

But Bitcoin was already on a roll heading into a new month of trading after beating history in September, outperforming the

S&P 500
and

Dow Jones Industrial Average
to rise for the first September in seven years. History suggests the outperformance could continue in October.

“Bring on the final quarter of 2023 because the last couple of times Bitcoin rose in September (way back in 2015 and 2016), it posted gains in each of the next three months,” said Trenchev. “Bitcoin has clocked positive returns in eight out of the past 10 Octobers and each of the last four, so hopes are high among the faithful that the grandfather of cryptocurrencies can gain some impetus this month after a rare positive September.”

Beyond Bitcoin,

Ether
—the second-largest crypto—jumped 3% to $1,730. Smaller tokens or altcoins also advanced, with

Cardano
climbing 5% and

Polygon
popping 4%. Memecoins saw more of the same, with

Dogecoin
and

Shiba Inu
both gaining 2%.

Write to Jack Denton at jack.denton@barrons.com