Why October Is An Important Month For The Crypto Industry

As Octo­ber approach­es, the cryp­to com­mu­ni­ty will have their eyes set on the US Secu­ri­ties and Exchange Com­mis­sion (SEC), as it has some key deci­sions to make that could invari­ably affect the cryp­to indus­try and every­one in it. 

SEC Appeal Incoming?

The SEC is expect­ed to decide whether or not to appeal the rul­ing in its case against asset man­ag­er Grayscale, with the dead­line for an appeal being Octo­ber 13 (45 days from the court’s ruling). 

On August 29, Grayscale secured a land­mark vic­tory against the SEC as the Dis­trict of Colum­bia Court of Appeals ruled that the reg­u­la­tor failed to pro­vide a valid rea­son for deny­ing Grayscale’s appli­ca­tion and ordered that the SEC review the appli­ca­tion once again. 

Fol­low­ing the deci­sion, a spokesper­son for the agency stat­ed that they would review the deci­sion before deter­min­ing their next steps. 

If the SEC choos­es to appeal, it can do so at the US Supreme Court by fil­ing a peti­tion for a “writ of cer­tio­rari,” which is a doc­u­ment ask­ing the Supreme Court to review the case, or it can ask for an “en banc” review where all the judges of the DC Court of Appeals will fur­ther review the case. 

An appeal by the SEC will undoubt­ed­ly damp­en the mood in the cryp­to com­mu­ni­ty as it could pro­long the wait for a Spot Bit­coin ETF.

How­ev­er, sup­pose the Com­mis­sion choos­es not to appeal, it will become law that the spot and futures mar­ket are cor­re­lat­ed, and the SEC’s argu­ment that the spot mar­ket is more sus­cep­ti­ble to fraud and manip­u­la­tion will no longer stick. 

Cryptocurrency market cap currently at $1.03 trillion. Chart: TradingView.com

Pending ETF Applications

The sec­ond dead­line for sev­er­al pend­ing spot Bit­coin ETF appli­ca­tions is in Octo­ber. The SEC must decide (approve, deny, or delay) on these appli­ca­tions. Some notable dates include Octo­ber 16 and 17. The for­mer is the sec­ond dead­line for a deci­sion on the Bit­wise Bit­coin ETP Trust. 

Mean­while, Octo­ber 17 is the sec­ond dead­line for the SEC to decide on the iShares Bit­coin Fund, VanEck Bit­coin Trust, Wis­domtree Bit­coin Trust, Invesco Galaxy Bit­coin ETF, and Wise Ori­gin Bit­coin Trust.

It is expect­ed that the SEC will again choose to delay its deci­sion on these appli­ca­tions, with the next dead­line for a deci­sion com­ing next year. 

If the SEC con­tin­ues to stretch its deci­sion on these appli­ca­tions, the ear­li­est a final response can come is on Jan­u­ary 10, 2024, the final dead­line for the ARK 21Shares Bit­coin ETF.

There should, how­ev­er, be some pos­i­tives to take from Octo­ber as the SEC is expect­ed to allow the launch of the pend­ing Ethereum futures ETF appli­ca­tions, with Volatil­i­ty Shares pro­ject­ed to launch theirs on Octo­ber 12 and oth­ers com­ing subsequently. 

Fea­tured image from Hotcore