Our man continued his good run of form with a 16/1 winner on Saturday and he’s back with a look at the ITV4 action on Easter Monday.
- The Value Bet is designed to generate long-term profit by searching for overpriced horses in the feature weekend races and at the big Festivals in the UK and Ireland.
- Following all of Matt’s tips to advertised stakes/odds since he took over from Ben Linfoot in June 2020 would have produced over 115pts profit.
- Last year’s winners included Desert Crown in the Derby at 25/1 and Noble Yeats at 50/1, while this year he’s tipped Aucunrisque at 14/1, Maskada at 25/1, Stage Star at 11/1 and Saturday winner Tiger Jet at 16/1.
Value Bet tips: Monday, April 10
1pt win Zoffany Bay in 3.15 Fairyhouse at 16/1 (bet365) – general 14/1 also fine
0.5pts e.w. Defi Bleu in 5.00 Fairyhouse at 28/1 (Sky Bet 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7)
A bumper nine-race ITV4 programme on Easter Monday concludes with the BoyleSports Irish Grand National Chase at Fairyhouse and it’s as wide open as ever.
Four novices – namely Thedevilscoachman, Stumptown, Angels Dawn and Panda Boy – sit prominently in the betting market and all of them have pretty obvious claims when it comes to potential further improvement and currently being ahead of the handicapper.
On what could be a huge week for trainer Martin Brassil, who returns to Aintree with Longhouse Poet this Saturday, Panda Boy makes most appeal of that lightly-raced quartet based on his really promising third in the Paddy Power at Leopardstown Christmas.
However, his fall back at the same venue last month shows how easily things can come unstuck for these novices in quality handicap company and, having put up DEFI BLEU for this a couple of weeks ago win-only on account of him also having the Aintree option at the time, I’m more than happy to double down with another each-way recommendation post-declarations, especially with the extra places on offer on top of the fact he’s roughly the same sort of price as he was antepost.
One of eight in the final field for Gordon Elliott, Defi Bleu may not be the most trustworthy contender for the yard and he certainly isn’t in the owner’s first-string based on the silks, but that didn’t stop General Principal, Rogue Angel or Thunder And Roses who have all won this quite recently at big prices for Gigginstown sporting the grey, blue and white caps respectively.
Defi Bleu (blue cap) is a bit of a rogue character in truth but he’s a capable one too when on his best behaviour and I was struck with the way he really took control four fences from the finish in the big three-mile handicap chase on this card 12 months ago.
He battled brilliantly to beat the subsequent winner (and reopposing) Donkey Years after the last obstacle that day and it’s not hard to imagine Elliott has had the Irish National in mind for the now 10-year-old ever since.
He’s not run badly this season either, placing in the Cork Grand National and Grand National Trial at Punchestown before another fair effort when fifth to Angels Dawn in the Kim Muir at Cheltenham.
He’s technically 11lb better off with the Festival winner here (not factoring in the jockeys’ relative claims), won’t mind any more rain that falls and benefits from the useful 5lb allowance of Gavin Brouder, who has won a Munster National for Elliott in the past (2020, Aforementioned).
He drifted in the betting and ran accordingly when last seen in the Imperial Cup at Sandown, pulling-up before getting to the second-last flight, but the heavy going wasn’t a legitimate excuse as he’d won a Listed race in similar conditions in France, so I’m happy to strike a line through the run.
Able to compete off a lower mark on home soil, I reckon he’s well worth another chance based on the fine effort when second to Irish Hill on debut for Peter Fahey at Ascot in February, particularly with the trainer already enjoying a good time of things with two winners at the track on Saturday.
Click here for the full Value Bet record
Published at 1500 BST on 09/04/23
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