Bitcoin (BTC) Price Falls to Critical Short-Term Level

The Bit­coin (BTC) price shows sev­er­al bull­ish signs in long-term time frames. How­ev­er, the direc­tion of the short-term trend is still unclear.

Fed­er­al Reserve data shows that Unit­ed States bank deposits decreased con­sid­er­ably between March 8 and 15, due to fears of a bank­ing col­lapse. At the same time, the num­ber of investors that hold Bit­coin (BTC) increased. As not­ed by Matrixport’s head of research and strat­e­gy, “Amer­i­cans are buy­ing Bit­coin with both hands”. How­ev­er, Bit­coin net exchange inflows hit a 10-month-high. Sim­i­lar peri­ods of high inflows have pre­vi­ous­ly pre­ced­ed sharp decreases.

Bitcoin (BTC) Price Approaches Range High

The Bit­coin price has increased rapid­ly since March 10. In a span of 14 days, it increased by near­ly 50%, reach­ing a new year­ly high of $29,380. How­ev­er, the price cre­at­ed a bear­ish can­dle­stick and has fall­en slight­ly since (red icon).

Despite the ral­ly stalling, the dai­ly RSI read­ing is bull­ish. The indi­ca­tor broke out from its bear­ish diver­gence trend line (black) and is now above 50.

The Bit­coin price is trad­ing between $24,400 and $31,800. Since the RSI read­ing is bull­ish, an even­tu­al increase to $31,800 is the most like­ly scenario.

Short-Term Drop or Continuation?

The tech­ni­cal analy­sis from the six-hour time frame shows that the BTC price bounced at an ascend­ing sup­port line which deter­mined its slope in the rapid por­tion of the increase. Then, the price broke out from a short-term descend­ing resis­tance line. 

If the increase con­tin­ues, the price could move to the range high at $31,800.

How­ev­er, a break­down would like­ly lead to a fall to $24,450, the 0.5 Fib retrace­ment sup­port lev­el. Since this also coin­cides with the pre­vi­ous­ly out­lined hor­i­zon­tal sup­port area, it is a very impor­tant lev­el that could ini­ti­ate a bounce. 

Bitcoin (BTC) Weekly Outlook: Bullish Sentiment Increases

While there are some con­flict­ing read­ings in the dai­ly and six-hour time frames, the week­ly Bit­coin price chart for BTC pro­vides a bull­ish out­look. There are numer­ous rea­sons for this. 

First­ly, the price broke out from a long-term descend­ing resis­tance line that had exist­ed since the all-time high. Then, it accel­er­at­ed the rate of increase after val­i­dat­ing it as sup­port dur­ing the week of March 6–13 (green icon). Then, it broke out from the $24,700 hor­i­zon­tal resis­tance area, reach­ing the high­est price since June 2022. The $24,700 area is now expect­ed to pro­vide sup­port. The area near­ly coin­cides with that men­tioned in the dai­ly time frame.

Besides the price action, the RSI read­ing is deci­sive­ly bull­ish. The indi­ca­tor broke out from a descend­ing resis­tance line (black) after gen­er­at­ing bull­ish diver­gence (green). Then, it moved above 50. All these are con­sid­ered bull­ish signs. 

If the increase con­tin­ues, the next resis­tance would be at $35,680, cre­at­ed by the 0.382 Fib retrace­ment resis­tance lev­el. On the oth­er hand, if the price clos­es below $24,700, it will inval­i­date the bull­ish fore­cast. In that case, a drop to $18,600 could follow.

To con­clude, the most like­ly Bit­coin price fore­cast is an increase to the long-term $35,680 resis­tance area. This would only be inval­i­dat­ed with a week­ly close below $24,700. In that case, a fall to $18,600 could follow.

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