ETH Facing Huge Resistance, Is $1600 or $2000 Next? (Ethereum Price Analysis)

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Ethereum’s price has been con­sol­i­dat­ing over the past week as the price is strug­gling to break above a key resis­tance area. Did ETH mark a local top?

Technical Analysis

By: Edris

The Daily Chart:

On the dai­ly time frame, ETH’s price has bro­ken above the sym­met­ri­cal tri­an­gle pat­tern late­ly and above the 50-day mov­ing aver­age line (around the $1600 mark). How­ev­er, ETH is trad­ing inside a very tight range above the bro­ken tri­an­gle and has yet to break with con­fi­dence above the $1800 level.

If the mar­ket fails, a pull­back toward the 50-day and even the 200-day mov­ing aver­age locat­ed around the $1600 and $1400 lev­els, respec­tive­ly, could be expect­ed. On the oth­er hand, a valid break above the $1800 lev­el could lead to anoth­er short-term ral­ly – first to tar­get the $2K lev­el for the first time in 2023, and then a fur­ther tar­get amind the $2300 area.

The 4‑Hour Chart

On the 4‑hour chart, the con­sol­i­da­tion becomes more evi­dent, as the price has been bounc­ing around the $1800 resis­tance lev­el. The RSI indi­ca­tor has been indi­cat­ing a clear bear­ish diver­gence sig­nal for a while, which could point to a pull­back in the com­ing days.

In this case, the $1650 lev­el could be retest­ed as sup­port, fol­lowed by the $1500 lev­el. How­ev­er, it is still too soon to pre­dict whether the bull­ish trend will con­tin­ue or reverse, as the mar­ket has yet to decide amid the $1800 resistance.

 

On-Chain Analysis

By: Edris

Ethereum Open Interest

Ethereum’s price has steadi­ly climbed over the last few months, fol­low­ing a rever­sal around the $1000 sup­port mark. How­ev­er, the futures mar­ket behaves quite dif­fer­ent­ly from the pre­vi­ous few times when the mar­ket expe­ri­enced short-term ral­lies dur­ing the recent bear market.

The open inter­est met­ric (OI) mea­sures the dai­ly num­ber of open futures con­tracts and is a handy indi­ca­tor for eval­u­at­ing the futures mar­ket sen­ti­ment. Gen­er­al­ly, ris­ing open inter­ests are fol­lowed by high volatil­i­ty and bear­ish rever­sals. How­ev­er, the open inter­est has remained rel­a­tive­ly low dur­ing the recent rally.

As a result, the uptrend could still be sus­tained as there is a low­er chance of long liq­ui­da­tion cas­cades occur­ring in the short term. Note – the spot mar­ket should also be con­sid­ered in order to make more pre­cise predictions.

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Cryp­tocur­ren­cy charts by TradingView. 



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