Did Bitcoin Mark a Local Top? Here’s the Level to Watch: BTC Price Analysis

Bitcoin’s impul­sive ral­ly seems to have tem­porar­i­ly halt­ed, and the price will like­ly enter a cor­rec­tion phase before the next leg up. Over­all, Bit­coin is fac­ing sig­nif­i­cant resis­tance at the $30K lev­el, which hasn’t been test­ed yet.

Technical Analysis

By Shayan

The Daily Chart

After form­ing a pull­back to the 61.8% lev­el of the Fibonac­ci entrance­ment lev­el at $19.6K, the price ini­ti­at­ed a mas­sive ral­ly with a cur­rent high above $28K. How­ev­er, the bulls couldn’t reach the sig­nif­i­cant resis­tance region of $30K.

This price area also acts as a psy­cho­log­i­cal resis­tance zone, as many traders believe that once the price sur­pass­es the $30K lev­el, the bear mar­ket will be offi­cial­ly ter­mi­nat­ed. Nev­er­the­less, a clear diver­gence between the price and the RSI indi­ca­tor can be iden­ti­fied, poten­tial­ly lead­ing to a short-term cor­rec­tion or con­sol­i­da­tion stage.

The 4‑Hour Chart

The impul­sive bull­ish ral­ly is more evi­dent on the 4‑hour time­frame. How­ev­er, recent price action indi­cates that the bull­ish momen­tum has decreased, and the price is like­ly to enter a short-term con­sol­i­da­tion or cor­rec­tion phase.

Bit­coin could retest two major sup­port lev­els in this sce­nario: the $25K sig­nif­i­cant sup­port lev­el and the price zone between the 0.5 and 61.8 Fib retrace­ment lev­els, rough­ly at $24.4K and $23K.

Nev­er­the­less, there is also a diver­gence between the price and the RSI indi­ca­tor in the 4‑hour time­frame, increas­ing the like­li­hood of a short-term cor­rec­tion before the next sig­nif­i­cant move.

On-chain Analysis

By Shayan

As a result of the recent surge in Bitcoin’s price, traders see their port­fo­lios rise above the break-even point, result­ing in a shift towards a pos­i­tive mar­ket sentiment.

The Net Unre­al­ized Prof­it and Loss (NUPL) mea­sures the prof­it or loss of all coins as a ratio cal­cu­lat­ed by divid­ing the dif­fer­ence between mar­ket cap and real­ized cap by mar­ket cap.

Assum­ing the lat­est coins trans­fer is due to a pur­chase, NUPL indi­cates the total prof­it or loss in all the coins. Fol­low­ing months of neg­a­tive val­ues, the recent ral­ly caused NUPL to enter the yel­low zone, mean­ing more investors are now expe­ri­enc­ing prof­its. This shift may be inter­pret­ed as a bull­ish sig­nal, as few­er mar­ket par­tic­i­pants are pres­sured to sell their coins to pre­vent fur­ther losses.