MATIC faces rejection at $1.25, a revisit of $1 looks increasingly likely

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Dis­claimer: The infor­ma­tion pre­sent­ed does not con­sti­tute finan­cial, invest­ment, trad­ing, or oth­er types of advice and is sole­ly the writer’s opinion.

  • The dai­ly mar­ket struc­ture was bearish.
  • The bounce from the Fibonac­ci gold­en pock­et gives bulls hope for fur­ther gains.

Poly­gon [MATIC] saw a mas­sive price appre­ci­a­tion ear­li­er this year. A good chunk of those gains has been wiped out over the past three weeks. The NFT ecosys­tem of the blockchain was thriv­ing despite the shift in sentiment.


Read Polygon’s [MATIC] Price Pre­dic­tion 2023–24


The launch of the Poly­gon zkEVM is just a week away and antic­i­pa­tion was build­ing up at press time. It remains to be seen if the event will have a strong impact on the price charts.

The resistance zone at $1.25 has refused to yield so far

MATIC could see a drop to $1 but here are other scenarios that could play out

Source: MATIC/USDT on TradingView

The move upward from $0.74 to $1.56 in Jan­u­ary and Feb­ru­ary saw a large retrace­ment lat­er in Feb­ru­ary. This con­tin­ued till 10 March before the prices bounced high­er once more. The Fibonac­ci retrace­ment lev­els (pale yel­low) showed the gold­en pock­et extend­ed from $0.92 to $1.06.

This is a high­er time­frame zone of demand, and the buy­ers have already forced a reac­tion over the past two weeks from this region. Addi­tion­al­ly, the $1 lev­el is a psy­cho­log­i­cal sup­port lev­el as well. The RSI inched toward neu­tral 50 and indi­cat­ed that bear­ish momen­tum has almost com­plete­ly waned.

How­ev­er, as shown in blue on the price chart, MATIC has breached a high­er low and there­by flipped its mar­ket struc­ture from bull­ish to bear­ish on 4 March. The red box high­light­ed the bear­ish order block present in the $1.25 area.

Even though the price bounced from the gold­en pock­et, its struc­ture was bear­ish. There­fore, sell­ers can look to short the asset in the $1.25-$1.3 area, tar­get­ing $0.92-$1 to take prof­its. Inval­i­da­tion of this bear­ish idea would be a dai­ly ses­sion close to $1.25.


Real­is­tic or not, here’s MATIC’s mar­ket cap in BTC’s terms


The large age consumed spike meant selling pressure could intensify

MATIC could see a drop to $1 but here are other scenarios that could play out

Source: San­ti­ment

The mean coin age fell off a cliff in mid-March. Soon there­after, the age con­sumed met­ric saw a rapid surge. Both of these met­rics indi­cat­ed a large amount of MATIC was moved between address­es about a week ago. Gen­er­al­ly, this would be fol­lowed by intense sell­ing pres­sure. How­ev­er, that has not occurred.

The mean coin age has recov­ered very slow­ly. The 90-day MVRV ratio remained pos­i­tive, but it has also declined by a large mar­gin over the past month. If the OBV plum­met­ed, MATIC buy­ers could look to exit the market.

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