Bitcoin Price to The Moon.. But when is the right question? | by Alexandros Roumpos | Feb, 2023

But when is the right question?

We will try to figure out what is going on in the market and if we are in a bull market right now. (2/5/2023)

BTC is up about 44%. That is a fact.

The New Year started very well for the crypto market. BTC was traded at $16,500 at the beginning of the year and is now at $23,000 to $24,000. BTC is up about 44%. That is a fact.

Ethereum and altcoins are the same. When the King (BTC) is up, the followers are going up, but when the King is going down the same is true for all the altcoins.

As an investor, you probably wondering if we are done with the crypto winter and are in a bull run that will send the BTC price to the Moon soon. Definitely, we was-are in a Bull run. The increase of 44% in the price indicates that.

But is this rally continuing? Are the bears defeated? Will I finally drive the Lambo? I don’t think so.

Let me explain. I am neither a magician nor a profit, I am a guy who is involved in the crypto market since 2017 and I have survived 2 crypto winters (the second one is still playing) and have experienced losses and wins.

But is this rally continuing? Are the bears defeated? Will I finally drive the Lambo? I don’t think so.

If we look at the past and use the data we have about the price of BTC (as an indicator) as a guide, we will see two things. First is the crypto market cycle has a duration of 4 years. The second one is the halving of BTC signals the end of the bear market and the beginning of the bull market, where a lot of bull runs occur driving the price to the moon.

Neither the lifecycle of the market is completed nor the halving is near. The next halving will occur approx. at 28 March of 20224. That is in 417 days. That is a year and two months.

Neither the lifecycle of the market is completed nor the halving is near.

Furthermore, we must look at the bigger picture. How does the economy perform? What is the rate of unemployed people? Where is the inflation? Where are the interest rates? Where are the wages?

If you are living on planet Earth I believe the answer to this question will drive you to the conclusion that the economy is going to hell. We are sitting on a ticking bomb. On a ticking bomb that the governments and the central banks are trying to disarm.

But they can’t. They are trying to prolongation so that the bomb will explode in other hands, not when they are in charge. That is politics. Telling whatever to the people to ensure that everything is under control. But it isn’t ok. They lie to us!

But it isn’t ok. They lie to us!

Conclusion

Based on these facts, my opinion is that we see another major crash. The rally is near its end and the price will go below $16,000. I personally have sold a portion of my portfolio and my plan is to reinvest the cash after the crash.

In a period of a year and two months, a lot will happen. I can’t say for sure when we will reach the bottom but I know that I will have a lot of opportunities to re-enter the market under better conditions.

The price of BTC will skyrocket after the halving and then we can go to the moon. Until then don’t FOMO.