Indian crypto investors hoping for tax rebate

This week is tight­ly packed with mul­ti­ple macro data com­ing in espe­cial­ly for Indi­an cryp­to investors. In today’s arti­cle, we will briefly touch on the macro fac­tors that can induce volatil­i­ty in the cryp­to market. 

Will the 2023 Budget give relief to crypto investors?

First and fore­most, the finance min­is­ter of India Nir­mala Sithara­man will deliv­er the Bud­get speech for the year 2023 this wednes­day where govt resource allo­ca­tion will be revealed. Along with the Bud­get fil­ing, comes the lat­est tax rules which will be keen­ly watched by cryp­to investors across India. 

Last year, almost the entire Indi­an cryp­to mar­ket was left shocked with the new tax regime which man­dat­ed 30% tax on all cryp­to prof­its and a 1% TDS (tax deduct­ed at source) on every trans­ac­tion. This led to a mas­sive decline across all exchanges in India as unhap­py investors quick­ly booked prof­its or moved to inter­na­tion­al mar­kets. While apply­ing TDS helps gov­ern­ments to track mon­ey, 1% on every trans­ac­tion was uninvit­ing as it dries up the funds pret­ty quick­ly if you are a fre­quent trader. 

Accord­ing to pol­i­cy experts, India is unlike­ly to do a tax cut. While the rec­om­men­da­tion from the cryp­to indus­try is to reduce the TDS, investors have to wait out and see. 

US data coming in hot

The Fed­er­al Open Mar­ket Com­mit­tee (FOMC) state­ment is also com­ing tomor­row which is a glob­al cue for mar­kets to price in the inter­est rate hikes. While there is a glob­al con­sen­sus on a 25 bps rate hike tomor­row, any sub­tle tone shifts from the chair­man can dri­ve volatil­i­ty to extreme lev­els. On Thurs­day, UK and EU cen­tral banks will also have their press con­fer­ence. Even though cryp­to investors are not required to keep a close watch on them but worth account­ing for volatil­i­ty. On Fri­day, US jobs data is kick­ing in with expec­ta­tions of the unem­ploy­ment rate to go up from 3.5% to 3.6%. 

As one can note, this week is tight­ly knit with mul­ti­ple fac­tors in line for the mar­kets to react. Con­sid­er­ing jobs data, Fed’s tone might be dovish on Wednes­day. From a traders per­spec­tive, short-term posi­tion­ing for this week might be impossible. 

Will Bitcoin go to $30,000?

Bit­coin is like­ly to reg­is­ter a 35%+ month­ly can­dle eye­ing a bull­ish month­ly close. Both the week­ly and month­ly charts are look­ing strong and look­ing to close above their key lev­els. Bit­coin is cur­rent­ly oscil­lat­ing at range highs which will stop it from cat­a­pult­ing to $30,000 lev­els. We will soon find out whether this pump is pure­ly based on expec­ta­tions of the Fed turn­ing dovish or if it is based on some­thing else. 

Look­ing at the dai­ly time frame on BTC, we can see how both low­er highs were respect­ed as Bit­coin accu­mu­lat­ed around those lev­els. Cur­rent­ly Bit­coin is trad­ing above $22,800 and is approach­ing the month­ly resis­tance lev­el near $23,300. The worst case sce­nario would be a big rejec­tion of the range high and Bit­coin plung­ing back below $20,000, in that case defend­ing the $18,710 lev­el is of key impor­tance if we want to remain bull­ish. Anoth­er break­down below $18,710 would indi­cate fur­ther down­side and bring the $14,000 month­ly lev­el back into play.

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Dis­claimer: This arti­cle was authored by Giot­tus Cryp­to Exchange as a part of a paid part­ner­ship with The News Minute. Cryp­to-asset or cryp­tocur­ren­cy invest­ments are sub­ject to mar­ket risks such as volatil­i­ty and have no guar­an­teed returns. Please do your own research before invest­ing and seek inde­pen­dent legal/financial advice if you are unsure about the investments.