Why Bitcoin [BTC] may have one last dance to $12,800 before critical moment

Please fol­low and like us:
Pin Share

  • Bit­coin risked a fur­ther price decrease due to the indi­ca­tions of the Delta cap and rela­tions to the 2015 and 2018 trend
  • Price action showed that a break­out was not near­by, even as investor con­fi­dence dropped

The Delta price of Bit­coin [BTC] might sug­gest that the worst was far from over, believed Ghod­dusi­far, a Cryp­to­Quant ana­lyst. Accord­ing to him, Bitcoin’s cur­rent Delta price was $12,800.


Read Bitcoin’s [BTC] Price Pre­dic­tion 2023–2024


The Delta price func­tions as the pos­si­ble price result­ing from the dif­fer­ence between the real­ized cap and the aver­age mar­ket cap. This con­clu­sion formed Ghoddusifar’s analy­sis as well, thus imply­ing BTC could drop fur­ther, as shown in the image below.

Bitcoin Delta Cap

Source: Cryp­to­Quant

Look back before the turning point

The ana­lyst focused not only on the recent BTC trend but also pro­vid­ed proof of past occur­rences. He brought up the fact that the pre­vi­ous cycles of 2015 and 2018 were sim­i­lar to the present circumstances. 

This led to a BTC price fall before there was a “turn­ing point.” For Ghod­dusi­far, the cur­rent con­di­tion had bear­ish­ness past­ed all over, mak­ing the price drop inevitable. 

He said,

“Based on the amount of bit­coin falling from the top in pre­vi­ous cycles as well as the Onchain oscil­la­tors, although they show that bit­coin is close to the turn­ing point, the pos­si­bil­i­ty of more falls is also confirmed.”

Tech­ni­cal­ly, there seemed to be some valid calls from the ana­lyst. The Bollinger Bands on BTC’s dai­ly chart revealed that the coin’s volatil­i­ty was extreme­ly low. 

Since BTC had not bro­ken the low­er BB lev­el, it was unlike­ly to expect a sharp bounce toward the upturn. In addi­tion, the price, at $17,015, had failed in its bid to move out of the bands. Con­se­quent­ly, the sug­gest­ed upward trend had been nullified. 

Bitcoin price action

Source: Trad­ingView

More­over, the Expo­nen­tial Mov­ing Aver­age (EMA) also indi­cat­ed a pos­si­ble drop in price. This was due to the 20 EMA (green) being unable to over­lap the 50 EMA (cyan). In this instance, a bear­ish move­ment was the prob­a­ble option.

No risk, no reward for Bitcoin

The above trend, which sug­gest­ed a BTC sink, seemed to have expand­ed in investors’ direc­tions. Accord­ing to Glassnode, the Bit­coin Reserve Risk was at 0.00076.

This point was con­sid­ered low and reflect­ed that long-term hold­ers’ con­fi­dence was not at its peak. In a case where the Reserve Risk was high and the price was low, it could sig­nal a point to accu­mu­late,

How­ev­er, that was not the case, as it fur­ther hint­ed at the fact that the ear­li­er drop below $16,000 was not the low­est that BTC could hit.

Bitcoin reserve risk and price

Source: Glassnode

Source link

Please fol­low and like us:
Pin Share

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *