Bitcoin holders waiting for a range exit should note down these points

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Bit­coin con­tin­ues to extend its stay with­in the $19,000 range and it is clear from online chat­ter that investors are grow­ing impa­tient. Many are won­der­ing when will Bit­coin exit the cur­rent range and whether will it be inter­est­ing or messy.


Here’s AMBCrypto’s price pre­dic­tion for Bit­coin (BTC).


The world waits to see where the winds of volatil­i­ty will take Bit­coin. Mean­while, the team of ana­lysts at Mes­sari has report­ed some inter­est­ing mar­ket observations.

For exam­ple, Bit­coin might be aban­don­ing its cor­re­la­tion with the S&P500. The lat­ter con­tin­ued tank­ing while Bitcoin’s price action has been trend­ing side­ways since the last week of September.

The Mes­sari analy­sis also looked into Bitcoin’s volatil­i­ty which has been unusu­al­ly low. The cryp­tocur­ren­cy is known to be quite volatile, hence its lat­est per­for­mance is unusual.

The low volatil­i­ty might be a sign that the bears are los­ing their strength. These obser­va­tions under­score a ‘calm before the storm’ type of situation.

Why declining correlation is a win for Bitcoin investors

Bit­coin and the rest of the risk-on assets espe­cial­ly the stock mar­ket have been mov­ing in tan­dem for most of 2022. This means impacts in the tra­di­tion­al mar­kets have affect­ed BTC’s price action so far.

The ongo­ing eco­nom­ic envi­ron­ment looks unfor­giv­ing, espe­cial­ly for the tra­di­tion­al mar­kets. The next few months might thus be bumpy for the S&P500 but a declin­ing cor­re­la­tion means Bit­coin might not be as heav­i­ly affected.

Inter­est­ing­ly, Bitcoin’s out­look has improved in the last few days. Demand in the futures and options mar­ket reg­is­tered an uptick lately.

Source: Glassnode

Despite these obser­va­tions, investors should note that the demand in the options and futures mar­ket might be directional.

Open inter­est in the deriv­a­tives mar­ket did drop slight­ly in the last 24 hours. Exchange deposit­ing trans­ac­tions have increased in the last few days, while exchange with­draw­ing address­es dropped slight­ly dur­ing the same period.

Source: Cryp­to­Quant

The above obser­va­tion sug­gests that more BTC hold­ers are mov­ing their BTC into exchanges, which is often a sign of incom­ing sell pressure.

How­ev­er, this might not nec­es­sar­i­ly trans­late to sell­ing. Investors might be mov­ing their coins to exchanges in prepa­ra­tion for a poten­tial crash that might not happen.

Whale activ­i­ty is one of the best indi­ca­tors for assess­ing the market’s next move. Bit­coin address­es hold­ing more than 1,000 BTC grew by at least 15 address­es in the last five days.

Source: Glassnode

Conclusion

The cur­rent mar­ket con­di­tions are cer­tain­ly con­fus­ing for many investors espe­cial­ly due to the unfa­vor­able eco­nom­ic conditions.

How­ev­er, investors should note that there is a less tra­di­tion­al mar­ket cor­re­la­tion, and Bit­coin whales have been buying.

Improved demand in the options and futures mar­ket also high­lights a favor­able short-term outlook.



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