What does post-Vasil Cardano [ADA] share with post-Merge ETH

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Livestreamed by over 40,000 peo­ple, the Car­dano Vasil Hard Fork upgrade was imple­ment­ed on 22 Sep­tem­ber at 9:44 p.m. UTC. Need­less to say, it was soon declared a success. 

That’s not all, how­ev­er. Fol­low­ing the hard fork, ADA’s price ral­lied by over 4% to close the 22 Sep­tem­ber trad­ing ses­sion at $0.458 on the price charts. 

For a while, ADA con­tin­ued on its upward price tra­jec­to­ry to exchange hands at a high of $0.4789 on 23 Sep­tem­ber. Soon after, the crypto-market’s bears took over to ini­ti­ate a price move­ment down south. At press time, ADA was trad­ing hands at $0.4572, hav­ing declined by 5% since the high of 23 September.

Jux­ta­pos­ing ADA’s per­for­mance after the Car­dano Vasil Hard Fork upgrade with that of ETH after the Merge, data from Coin­Mar­ket­Cap revealed that the price of the lead­ing alt rose momen­tar­i­ly by 3%. Fol­low­ing the same, the price imme­di­ate­ly plum­met­ed. Over the sev­en days that fol­lowed the Merge, the price of ETH dropped by 16% on the charts.

With the bears spot­ted to be in con­trol of the ADA mar­ket, the alt­coin appeared poised to fol­low in the foot­steps of ETH. 

Sellers on a rampage

On the dai­ly chart, fol­low­ing the Vasil Hard Fork, sell­ing pres­sure for ADA ral­lied. Posi­tioned in down­trends, key indi­ca­tors revealed low buy order vol­umes since the upgrade. At press time, ADA’s Chaikin Mon­ey Flow was posi­tioned at ‑0.07. Head­ed towards the over­sold zone, ADA’s Mon­ey Flow Index (MFI) was found at 35. 

Fur­ther­more, a look at the Direc­tion­al Move­ment Index (DMI) revealed that ADA sell­ers had con­trol of the mar­ket. The strength (red) at 17.66 was posi­tioned solid­ly above the buy­ers’ (green) at 13.58. Also, the Rel­a­tive Strength Index (RSI) was placed at 46.32 at press time. 

Source: Trad­ingView

Vasil led to a ‘downgrade’

Accord­ing to on-chain data from Mes­sari, active address­es that have trad­ed ADA since the Vasil Hard Fork upgrade have fall­en by 14%. At press time, active address­es on the ADA net­work stood at 55,194. On the day of the upgrade, fig­ures for the same were as high as 64,919.

Source: Mes­sari

On a 30-day mov­ing aver­age, ADA’s mar­ket-val­ue-to-real­ized-val­ue (MVRV) post­ed a neg­a­tive val­ue, indi­cat­ing that an aver­age ADA hold­er has held at a loss over the last month. So far, the Vasil Hard Fork has not led to a rever­sal in this trend. At press time, ADA’s 30-day MVRV stood at ‑3%. 

Fur­ther­more, in spite of the upgrade, the gen­er­al mar­ket remained skep­ti­cal about the asset’s per­for­mance. For instance, the weight­ed sen­ti­ment, at press time, was ‑0.168.

Source: San­ti­ment

Accord­ing to Coin­Mar­ket­Cap, the price of ADA has declined by over 150% since the year start­ed. With the last six months marked by dor­man­cy on the ADA net­work, a sig­nif­i­cant ral­ly in the crypto-asset’s price might be far-fetched.

Only time will tell if this is proven to be true.

Source: San­ti­ment



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