Breakdown or Rebound to $22K? (BTC Price Analysis)

Bitcoin’s price is expe­ri­enc­ing a mid-term con­sol­i­da­tion phase. The price has dropped and now will be fac­ing a sig­nif­i­cant lev­el of sup­port at $19K, and this lev­el is the most crit­i­cal sup­port for the bulls to hold over the next short term.

Technical Analysis

By Shayan

The Daily Chart

After expe­ri­enc­ing a par­tic­u­lar­ly rough decline of approx­i­mate­ly 10%, the price of BTC has entered a con­sol­i­da­tion phase, con­sist­ing of chop­py price action. The $19K sup­port lev­el has sub­stan­tial­ly sup­port­ed Bitcoin’s price over the past few months. Hence, a sharp decline is antic­i­pat­ed if this lev­el gets bro­ken down.

Nev­er­the­less, the 50-day and the 100-day mov­ing aver­age lines are close to mark­ing a bear­ish cross, which could inten­si­fy the bear­ish rally.

The 4‑Hour Chart

In the short term, the appar­ent bull­ish diver­gence between the price and the RSI indi­ca­tor indi­cates a pos­si­ble rebound for Bit­coin in the upcom­ing days. The price must first pen­e­trate the descend­ing trend line (marked yellow).

Con­sid­er­ing the men­tioned diver­gence and the strength of the $19K sup­port lev­el, there is an oppor­tu­ni­ty for a rebound in the short term. A cor­rec­tion towards the $22K lev­el could take place before the next sig­nif­i­cant drop to attack the $18K thresh­old again.

On-chain Analysis

By: Edris

Bitcoin Exchange Whale Ratio

Bit­coin whales have a sig­nif­i­cant influ­ence on BTC’s price action. This results from the fact that whales hold large amounts of cap­i­tal, which can be used to move and manip­u­late the mar­ket. The exchange whale ratio met­ric demon­strates the ratio of deposits being made by whales to the whole amount of deposits in a day.

Accord­ing to the chart, it is evi­dent that the whales tend to dis­trib­ute their coins dur­ing the first stages of a bear mar­ket, as there are will­ing and impa­tient dip-buy­ers to take Bit­coin off their hands before a final capitulation.

After the capit­u­la­tion men­tioned above, the same investors who bought their coins at high­er prices from the whales come under heavy psy­cho­log­i­cal and finan­cial pres­sure. From this, they end up sell­ing their cheap coins back to the whales. This cycle is seen on the fol­low­ing chart and marked by red and green arrows.

The Whale Ratio met­ric is still ris­ing, indi­cat­ing that the whales are dis­trib­ut­ing at cur­rent prices, sig­nal­ing anoth­er poten­tial drop. Over­all, the mar­ket still appears far from find­ing a bot­tom, and a final capit­u­la­tion event could be on the horizon.