Can Bitcoin Finally Break $24K or is Another Crash Coming? (BTC Price Analysis)

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Bit­coin con­tin­ues its strug­gle to push and hold above $24K, as it has been reject­ed from this sig­nif­i­cant lev­el for the third time. The price rebound­ed from the $20K sup­port lev­el last month and has been mak­ing high­er highs and lows on the dai­ly chart. This result­ed in the cre­ation of a bull­ish struc­ture. Can the cryp­tocur­ren­cy final­ly break through its goal of the $24K resis­tance level?

Technical Analysis

By: Edris

The Daily Chart

As of this writ­ing, Bit­coin has yet to break above the $24K resis­tance lev­el. The 100-day mov­ing aver­age has reached the $24K range and is cre­at­ing fur­ther resis­tance. In case of a short-term bear­ish pull­back, the 50-day mov­ing aver­age – which cur­rent­ly sits around the $22K lev­el – would be the first sup­port. If the price breaks below the MA, bear­ish momen­tum would like­ly return. Thus, a down­trend con­tin­u­a­tion below the $20K sup­port area is probable.

On the oth­er hand, if the price final­ly breaks above the $24K lev­el and the 100-day mov­ing aver­age, a quick ral­ly towards the $30K sup­port zone would be expected.

btc_price_chart_1208
Source: Trad­ingView

The 4‑Hour Chart

The price has reached the high­er bound­ary of the large bear­ish flag but has been reject­ed once again. The high­er lows formed over recent weeks have result­ed in a bull­ish trend­line and could pro­vide sup­port in the short term. How­ev­er, the RSI oscil­la­tor has print­ed a bear­ish diver­gence sig­nal which points to a poten­tial break­down of the men­tioned bull­ish trendline.

In this case, a drop towards the low­er bound­ary of the flag and even a bear­ish break­out and con­tin­u­a­tion below the $18K low would be the most like­ly sce­nario. This is a con­tin­u­a­tion pat­tern that gets val­i­dat­ed after a break­out and could lead to anoth­er bear­ish impul­sive move.

It must be not­ed, how­ev­er, that if the price breaks above the flag in the com­ing days, the bear­ish con­tin­u­a­tion sce­nario would not be ruled out com­plete­ly, but it does seem less like­ly to occur.

btc_price_chart_1208
Source: Trad­ingView

Onchain Analysis

By Shayan

The fol­low­ing chart illus­trates Bitcoin’s Long Term Hold­er Real­ized Price along­side its price. It mea­sures the aver­age price weight­ed by the sup­ply of what the long-term hold­ers spent on their coins. It is diag­nosed as the on-chain sup­port or resis­tance level.

His­tor­i­cal­ly, a bear market’s bot­tom is usu­al­ly formed as the mar­ket suf­fers extreme fear. All mar­ket par­tic­i­pants enter a capit­u­la­tion stage, and the weak­er hands tend to real­ize immense loss­es. How­ev­er, the whales and long-term hold­ers are usu­al­ly the last cohorts to capit­u­late. This stage would be a proxy for the final phase of the bear­ish cycle.

Bitcoin’s price has sur­passed the LTH real­ized price for the third time in its exis­tence. This implies that the long-term hold­ers are now in an aggre­gate loss. Although, it has bounced back above the cru­cial lev­el and is begin­ning to recov­er. The next bull mar­ket will be ini­ti­at­ed if the lev­el suc­cess­ful­ly sup­ports the price.

img1_onchain
Source; Chain­Ex­posed
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Dis­claimer: Infor­ma­tion found on Cryp­toPota­to is those of writ­ers quot­ed. It does not rep­re­sent the opin­ions of Cryp­toPota­to on whether to buy, sell, or hold any invest­ments. You are advised to con­duct your own research before mak­ing any invest­ment deci­sions. Use pro­vid­ed infor­ma­tion at your own risk. See Dis­claimer for more information.

Cryp­tocur­ren­cy charts by TradingView. 



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