This Top Crypto Analyst Predicts Bitcoin Has More Room to Fall

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Don’t get too excited for a Bitcoin bottom just yet.

Key points

• While the markets may continue to fall before they find their stable bottom, there is still hope for the crypto market.
• Even with the pending lows and volatility, there has still been a massive increase in crypto investment that continues to give energy and hope to the movement.
• The future of crypto may depend more on the retail investor than the institutional entities.

Josh Olszewicz, a crypto analyst, gave a candid interview with Coindesk today. In spite of the projected fall for Bitcoin, Olszewicz remains hopeful about the future of crypto and urged investors that the market should be viewed as a marathon, not a sprint.

Bitcoin still searching for the floor

In support of Olszewicz’s theory that Bitcoin has more room left to fall, Guggenheim Chief Investment Officer Scott Minerd predicted it could fall as low as $8,000 on Monday.

“When you break below 30,000 [dollars] consistently, 8,000 [dollars] is the ultimate bottom, so I think we have a lot more room to the downside, especially with the Fed being restrictive,” Minerd told CNBC’s Andrew Ross Sorkin in a Squawk Box interview at the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland on Monday.

Olszewicz’s theory puts weight on the need for more history to occur before we really understand Bitcoin’s floor. “We can look at things like the 200-week moving average, which is around $22,000. We can look at realized price, which is the average price of coins that have moved on-chain, which is around $23,800,” Olszewicz said on CoinDesk TV’s First Mover program. “This [movement to hit bottom] will probably take at least all of Q3, perhaps Q4 as well, if it were to happen this year.”

The power of the retail investor

As Olszewicz analyzed the current market movement, he provided interesting insights as to the potential role of the retail investor versus the institutional giants. When reflecting on the market’s current state, he suggested that institutional investors could be leading the downturn. To support his point, Olszewicz pointed out that the average size of on-chain movements is in the tens of thousands of Bitcoin.

However, Olszewicz actually credits the market’s movement as being primarily dependent on retail traders rather than institutional investors. He views investors that are just now entering crypto as increasing their knowledge of the market through this bear cycle. Perhaps it is this high volume of brazen investing that has the potential to influence this ever-evolving market.

Olszewicz is keen to continue to map Bitcoin’s short-lived market history as he states, “We’ve seen this rise and swell before, and as individuals again learn about Bitcoin for the first time, the cycle could repeat. Since 2018, the average number of Bitcoin-holding wallets has increased from over 27 million to more than 41 million today.”

The bottom line

Even with the volatility, low prices, and expected continued decrease, analysts and investors alike are still eager to see how the crypto market moves and grows. With the bear market, investors interested in testing crypto waters may have more power than they realize to change the crypto world.

If you are eager to explore the bear market, check out our list of the best cryptocurrency exchanges and apps to get you started.