Short-Term And Long-Term Bitcoin Holder Cost Bases Indicate Changing Market Conditions
The short-term and long-term bitcoin holder cost basis ratio is trending downward, signaling a shift in market conditions.
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One of our favorite on-chain indicators recently flipped bullish. The STH (short-term holder) LTH (long-term holder) cost basis ratio recently has started to trend downward over the last two weeks, indicating a shift in market conditions.
The metric is first explained in detail in The Daily Dive #070.
Historically the metric has been one of the most accurate market indicators in Bitcoin, as the relationships between short-term and long-term holders and the acceleration/deceleration of cost basis of the two respective cohorts is quite informative.
While it is true that short-term holders are still underwater in aggregate (relative to the average cost basis of the cohort) the market absorbed lots of realized losses during the last few months, and with a relative accumulation occurring, the STH LTH Ratio has flipped back bullish.
A backtest of the ratio over time speaks for itself:
Below is a view of the inputs that go into the ratio itself:
Similarly, last Wednesday in The Daily Dive #144 we highlighted the bullish flip in the delta gradient, another market momentum metric.
The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.