As Bitcoin turns 13, considering why 2022 may not be its year yet

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3 Jan­u­ary marked the 13th anniver­sary of the Bit­coin Gen­e­sis Block or the begin­ning of the Bit­coin chain as we know it today. But, on its birth­day, BTC price lev­els remained under $50k. Soon after on 4 Jan­u­ary, the coin is hov­er­ing close to $46,700 with a week­ly return down by 7.7% on CoinGecko.

That being said, extreme fear per­sists in the market.

13-year old Bitcoin is losing dominance

Addi­tion­al­ly, we also need to note that Bit­coin doesn’t exert the same dom­i­nance in the cryp­to mar­ket, as it used to in its 13-year-long jour­ney. After dip­ping under 40% in the last week, the BTC Dom­i­nance index as per Trad­ingView was cal­cu­lat­ed at 39.5% at the time of writing.

Mean­while, cryp­to com­men­ta­tor Peter Schiff con­tin­ued his dig at Bit­coin pro­po­nents stating,

“[Bit­coin] It’s just going down no mat­ter what.”

Long-term Bitcoin participation

How­ev­er, in the mar­ket weak­ness, there was a slight ray of hope in Bitcoin’s hashrate. Bit­coin start­ed the new year with an ATH hashrate of 207.53 EH/s. But at the time of writ­ing, the Bit­coin net­work hash rate is down over 18% at 168.92 EH/s, from its all-time high.

Source: yCharts

Fur­ther, ana­lyst Willy Woo not­ed Bitcoin’s long-term tra­jec­to­ry in terms of mar­ket par­tic­i­pants in a pos­i­tive light. In this regard, Woo con­trast­ed the falling Bit­coin accu­mu­la­tion to few whales with the increas­ing wealth inequal­i­ty in the real-fiat world.

Mean­while, Jason Choi, Gen­er­al Part­ner at The Spar­tan Group sees the year ahead as a time when BTC will stop being the barom­e­ter of the cryp­to mar­ket. An asset that once enjoyed almost half the cumu­la­tive mar­ket cap of the cryp­to ecosys­tem, has lost sig­nif­i­cant mar­gins since it touched an ATH of close to $69,000 in Novem­ber 2021.

In addi­tion, ana­lyst Adam Cochran now pre­dicts that Yearn Finance (YFI) may see $100,000 price lev­els before Bit­coin at the cur­rent pace.

Will 2022 see $100k?

Ana­lyst Mr. Whale, a long-term Bit­coin oppo­nent, also took to Twit­ter recent­ly to indi­cate that sky-high Bit­coin val­u­a­tions of $100,000+ has not materialized.

On the con­trary, some indus­try play­ers are still opti­mistic. Antoni Trenchev, co-founder and Man­ag­ing Part­ner, cryp­to lender Nexo told CNBC,

“I think [bitcoin’s] going to reach $100,000 this year, prob­a­bly by the mid­dle of it.”

With some oth­er ana­lysts main­tain­ing a pos­i­tive long-term out­look for Bit­coin, Katie Stock­ton, founder, and man­ag­ing part­ner of Fair­lead Strate­gies LLC has a sim­i­lar take. In  an email to Forbes, she said that they are bull­ish on Bit­coin based on their long-term trend-fol­low­ing gauges, adding,

“We assume the long-term uptrend will main­tain itself and a more deci­sive break­out to new highs would allow for an impres­sive mea­sured-move pro­jec­tion of approx­i­mate­ly $90,000. For now, a cor­rec­tive phase still has a hold, although there are poten­tial signs of short-term down­side exhaustion.”



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