$60K becomes resistance — 5 things to watch in Bitcoin this week

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Bit­coin (BTC) begins a new week with a rare dis­ap­point­ment for its Q4 bull run — fail­ing to crack pre­vi­ous support.

After a promis­ing week­end, BTC/USD ulti­mate­ly saw rejec­tion at $60,000 twice and has since head­ed below $57,000 as mar­ket momen­tum wanes.

The stakes are high: Some believe that sky-high Bit­coin price tar­gets can still be met by the end of the month, while oth­ers believe that this bull mar­ket will take longer to play out than pre­vi­ous ones. 

With Novem­ber look­ing ever more like­ly to break with tra­di­tion and under­de­liv­er — both com­pared to recent months and old bull mar­ket years — traders and ana­lysts are gear­ing up for a nerve-rack­ing but poten­tial­ly inter­est­ing month­ly close.

Coin­tele­graph takes a look at five fac­tors that could shape BTC price action in the final week of a unique­ly stress­ful “Moon­vem­ber.”

$60,000 flips to resistance

For most of the week­end, the mood among ana­lysts was sim­ple: “It could be worse.”

After hit­ting five-week lows of $55,650, BTC/USD man­aged to claw back some of its loss­es, and on Sat­ur­day, it even “gapped high­er” to take a swing at $60,000.

This was ulti­mate­ly unsuc­cess­ful, but Sun­day saw a fur­ther attempt, with Bit­coin enjoy­ing a few brief min­utes in the $60,000 range before a firm rejec­tion sent the mar­ket tum­bling once again.

At the time of writ­ing Mon­day, $57,000 is form­ing a focus, with the clear impe­tus that what was once sol­id sup­port has flipped to resistance.

Pop­u­lar trad­er Pen­toshi sum­ma­rized the mood, reit­er­at­ing his desire for $61,000 to be reclaimed as sup­port for bull­ish continuation.

Novem­ber 2021 has so far deliv­ered neg­a­tive returns of ‑6.5% for hodlers, mak­ing it one of just three such Novem­bers in Bitcoin’s his­to­ry not to pro­duce gains.

As Coin­tele­graph report­ed, oth­er years have seen trans­for­ma­tive price action, not least of all 2020, when BTC/USD climbed almost 43% in November.

Sunday’s down­turn nonethe­less did man­age to fill the lat­est CME futures gap cre­at­ed on Fri­day, some­thing which has again become a fea­ture of spot price action this month.

For fel­low trad­er and ana­lyst Cryp­to Ed, this is what need­ed to hap­pen to increase the odds of fresh upside return­ing in the new week.

“Wait­ing for anoth­er leg down to fill CME tonight and up from there again the com­ing days,” he said in part of Twit­ter com­ments Sunday.

CME Bit­coin futures 1‑hour can­dle chart show­ing gap. Source: TradingView

Uncanny resemblances

For all the frus­tra­tion of a Bit­coin cor­rec­tion just when it is least wel­come, not every­one is sur­prised — or worried.

Short time­frames can paint a com­plete­ly dif­fer­ent pic­ture of mar­ket health to longer ones, and it is these that com­men­ta­tors are eye­ing to sup­port an endur­ing bull the­sis this week.

“If in doubt, zoom out” — com­pared to its per­for­mance in its two pre­vi­ous years after block sub­sidy halv­ings, Bit­coin remains right on track.

“Remark­ably sim­i­lar cor­rec­tive struc­tures so far on the BTC 8H,” ana­lyst TechDev con­firmed Sunday. 

“Almost to the day 4 years apart. 2021 con­tin­ues to run 5–8 days behind 2017 since July.”

TechDev referred to data show­ing that not only has Bit­coin repeat­ed its 2017 per­for­mance this year but also prac­ti­cal­ly copied the time­frames for each phase of its bull market.

Should this con­tin­ue, the pre­dict­ed blow-off top phase should also appear — except this time, an order of mag­ni­tude high­er than 2017’s $20,000.

BTC/USD anno­tat­ed chart com­par­i­son with RSI high­light­ed. Source: TechDev/Twitter

A chart fur­ther shows how Bitcoin’s rel­a­tive strength index (RSI) is copy-past­ing its 2017 per­for­mance in Novem­ber in particular.

Typ­i­cal­ly, bull cycle tops are accom­pa­nied by an RSI read­ing of 90 or more, this far from the cur­rent read­ing on low­er timeframes.

Funding rises on $60,000 rematch

Despite los­ing the bat­tle for $60,000, the process of try­ing to exit low­er lev­els has had an unwel­come impact on deriv­a­tives mar­kets, where traders are increas­ing lever­age once again.

After being effec­tive­ly “reset” to neu­tral dur­ing last week’s lows, fund­ing rates are on the move again.

Being over­ly pos­i­tive, as is the case on Bybit, OKEx and oth­ers at the time of writ­ing, sug­gests a bull­ish bias — the expec­ta­tion that fur­ther gains are on the cards.

This can often have unde­sir­able results, as a price down­turn begins to unrav­el large num­bers of posi­tions, the snow­ball effect dri­ving prices down even more.

So far, liq­ui­da­tions remain mut­ed, how­ev­er — $70 mil­lion for Bit­coin and $219 mil­lion across cryp­to mar­kets over the past 24 hours.

“Thin­ing liq­ui­da­tions so ques­tion is which side of the mar­ket gets ran this week,” blog­ger 52kskew sum­ma­rized on Twit­ter Mon­day, not­ing what hap­pened on the retest of $60,000.

Open inter­est on Bit­coin futures, mean­while, has yet to beat all-time highs set before the dip on Nov. 10.

The dollar is the star of the show

On macro mar­kets, ner­vous­ness over coro­n­avirus mea­sures — and the protests in response to them — con­tin­ue to present a mixed bag.

With infla­tion already firm­ly on the radar, talk is now turn­ing to the Unit­ed States Fed­er­al Reserve increas­ing the pace of its asset pur­chase taper­ing next month.

“If that idea gets out there and is repeat­ed­ly under­scored, that will increase the prob­a­bil­i­ty that the taper­ing that’s announced in Decem­ber will be quick­er than the pace that was announced ear­ly in Novem­ber,” Jason Schenker, pres­i­dent and chief econ­o­mist at fore­cast­er Pres­tige Eco­nom­ics, told Bloomberg.

Steal­ing the lime­light this week, how­ev­er, is the U.S. dollar.

The green­back has beat­en long­stand­ing resis­tance this month to reach its strongest since July 2020, accord­ing to the U.S. dol­lar cur­ren­cy index (DXY).

Typ­i­cal­ly, pro­nounced DXY gains have the oppo­site effect on Bit­coin, which strug­gles dur­ing such peri­ods. Novem­ber has been no excep­tion as DXY swaps grind for surge and have held a read­ing of 96.

DXY 1‑day can­dle chart. Source: TradingView

“The prob­lem? Sen­ti­ment get­ting very extreme in fx land,” ana­lyst Helene Meisler warned on the weekend.

A turn­around for the unusu­al­ly volatile DXY would con­verse­ly pro­vide a test of inverse cor­re­la­tion to BTC.

Sentiment says “wait and see”

On the top­ic of mar­ket mood, with­in cryp­to, investors are on the fence.

Relat­ed: Top 5 cryp­tocur­ren­cies to watch this week: BTC, AVAX, MATIC, EGLD, MANA

The lat­est read­ing from the Cryp­to Fear & Greed Index shows that despite short-term price behav­ior, the mar­ket is in fact entire­ly neutral.

At 50/100, Fear & Greed is exact­ly in the mid­dle of its pos­si­ble range of val­ues, high­light­ing a lack of “extreme” sentiment.

This may act in Bitcoin’s favor, with last week’s shake­out hav­ing dri­ven sen­ti­ment back into “fear” ter­ri­to­ry from which it has now recovered.

Cryp­to Fear & Greed Index. Source: Alternative.me

Con­trast that with the tra­di­tion­al mar­kets’ Fear & Greed Index and the dichoto­my is clear: “Extreme greed” char­ac­ter­ized the lat­ter at the pre­vi­ous close, and now, “greed” still remains.



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