Historical data points to Bitcoin mirroring past rallies, is it ready for massive gains

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The over­all cryp­tocur­ren­cy mar­ket is going through mas­sive blood­shed at the time of writ­ing. As per Coin­Mar­ket­Cap, it record­ed an over­all 10% decline in mar­ket cap, fol­low­ing this set­back. Bit­coin shed more than 9% in the last 24 hours, slip­ping below the $60k mark.

How­ev­er, strong hands with­in the cryp­to ecosys­tem con­tin­ue to HODL. Let’ take a look at what’s the rea­son behind the bull­ish narrative?

Well, here’s one. The pseu­do­ny­mous cryp­to mar­ket ana­lyst TechDev believes that the token is mir­ror­ing past ral­lies and could be on the verge of achiev­ing mas­sive gains. Con­sid­er the chart below:

Source: Twit­ter

As can be observed, BTC here resem­bled a path from its late 2020 struc­ture. At that time, the token con­sol­i­dat­ed below the $20k mark before blast­ing off to $64,000. The ana­lyst tweeted:

“Last time this cycle, BTC tried to break ATH (all-time high) on the weekly…It con­sol­i­dat­ed beneath for 3–4 weeks with Stoch RSI maxed out before a strong break to the upside.”

BTC’s increased liq­ui­da­tion didn’t quite make any sense. “While com­fort­ing, the bear­ish sen­ti­ment is con­fus­ing,” the ana­lyst also added. To fur­ther sup­port the afore­men­tioned nar­ra­tive, the ana­lyst com­pared Bit­coin charts from 2013, 2017, and 2021.

Source: Twitter

BTC was surg­ing above the 161.8% Fibonac­ci exten­sion lev­el, a his­tor­i­cal­ly sig­nif­i­cant lev­el. The same bench­mark has been high­light­ed in the chart above. Now con­sid­er this, in the 2013 and 2017 bull cycles, Bit­coin ignit­ed par­a­bol­ic ral­lies post sur­pass­ing the set bench­mark. This jus­ti­fied his opti­mistic sce­nario despite the on going BTC setback.

He quot­ed:

“You ready for what’s com­ing? I per­son­al­ly am not bet­ting on this time being dif­fer­ent for Bitcoin.”

Now, need­less to say this nar­ra­tive incor­po­rates some obsta­cles as well. The ana­lyst pin­point­ed four sep­a­rate two-week indi­ca­tors across four BTC bull runs to indi­cate “when he would con­sid­er turn­ing bearish”.

Nothing but a shakeout

Nonethe­less, while pos­si­ble volatil­i­ty is noth­ing new for BTC or oth­er cryp­tocur­ren­cy tokens, the bull­ish­ness is still strong. The opti­mism regard­ing the king coin remains strong even as the “shake­out” of posi­tions on deriv­a­tives exchanges was near­ing com­ple­tion. The fol­low­ing tweet points at the same logic.

This sheds light on a pos­si­ble price recov­ery for the largest cryp­to token.

Over­all, BTC could have an inter­est­ing week hence forth. This rais­es two pos­si­ble sce­nar­ios to post its recent rejec­tion, at the $66K lev­el, after which it start­ed to tum­ble. Either it could retrace a path to the $63k mark or wit­ness some fur­ther south­bound move­ment, and drop to $54K soon.

What­ev­er the case, strong HODLers remain unde­terred as they con­tin­ue to buy more BTC at a dis­count­ed price.



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