Bitcoin will peak at $253K, Ethereum at $22K this cycle if 2016 halving bull run repeats

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Bit­coin (BTC) may be over sev­en times high­er than at its last halv­ing, but if his­to­ry repeats, that num­ber could grow anoth­er 300% and more.

As tracked by on-chain data source Ecoino­met­rics this month, BTC/USD has the poten­tial to eclipse esti­mates sim­ply by fol­low­ing his­tor­i­cal precedent.

Bitcoin: Compared to 2017, you ain’t seen nothing yet

Bit­coin cur­rent­ly trades 7.3 times its price since the halv­ing in May 2020. If the last halv­ing cycle is any­thing to go by, how­ev­er, price action will not stop until it is 30 times higher.

The data relates to the rough­ly four-year halv­ing cycles in which Bit­coin has exhib­it­ed iden­ti­cal behav­ior since its inception.

The cur­rent cycle, despite impa­tience from some traders, remains close­ly tied to the pre­vi­ous two.

Tak­ing 2017 as an exam­ple, the next BTC price peak could be as much as $253,800 — and even then, Bit­coin would still be act­ing with­in pre­vi­ous­ly defined parameters.

Ecoino­met­rics also includes data on Ether (ETH) and its per­for­mance rel­a­tive to the stage of Bitcoin’s halv­ing cycle.

The largest alt­coin saw much larg­er com­par­a­tive gains rel­a­tive to Bit­coin — 120 times its halv­ing price marked last cycle’s peak in 2018.

Thus, a repeat per­for­mance would mean ETH/USD trad­ing at $22,300 — again not beyond the realms of possibility.

In terms of what the sub­se­quent bear mar­ket could bring, Bit­coin would need to bot­tom out at around $42,000 to copy its post-2017 cor­rec­tion. ETH’s price, on the oth­er hand, would fall to $1,347.

Bit­coin and Ether post-halv­ing per­for­mance chart. Source: Ecoinometrics/Twitter

1 BTC = 1 BTC

If such sky-high fig­ures are dif­fi­cult to com­pre­hend, they pale in com­par­i­son to what well-known data ana­lyst Willy Woo now believes.

Relat­ed: Bit­coin retests sup­port, with trad­er fore­cast­ing BTC price dip to $55K

In a tweet this week, Woo reit­er­at­ed that this Bit­coin halv­ing cycle would be unique in one spe­cif­ic way: It will end in things being priced in BTC, not Unit­ed States dol­lars, as using any­thing to mea­sure BTC val­ue will be pointless.

“What’s my pre­dic­tion for the top of this cycle? Since I think this is the last cycle, the one that takes us to sat­u­ra­tion, which if it wins, we can’t put a USD val­ue on it because things get val­ued in BTC,” he wrote. 

“Thus the cycle top is easy to pick. It will be 1 BTC = 1 BTC.”

A sep­a­rate post not­ed how close Bit­coin was get­ting by mar­ket cap­i­tal­iza­tion com­pared to U.S. dol­lar M2 sup­ply. The sit­u­a­tion in the next five years — the remain­der of the cur­rent cycle and start of the next — he com­ment­ed, will be “very interesting.”



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